Hotel rates will rise modestly in most global markets in 2027, with the largest increases in Latin America and parts of Europe and near-flat growth across much of North America, according to American Express Global Business Travel's Hotel Monitor, published on Tuesday (22 September).
For 2027, Amex GBT gives each city's forecast as a range rather than a single figure, citing the Middle East conflict and commodity price volatility.
The Monitor is based on data from Amex GBT's data lake along with inflation and GDP forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, modelled with open-source software Prophet. All prices are in local currency.
"If the Middle East conflict does not resolve quickly or if global inflation remains in line with the IMF’s July World Economic Outlook forecast of 4.7 per cent for 2026, we advise you use the lower forecast," Amex GBT Consulting director of consulting strategy Sara Andell wrote in the report. "If global inflation rises beyond 4.7 per cent, use the upper forecast in the range."
Europe should see "solid" rate increases in 2027, with corporate and leisure demand holding up despite modest growth forecasts for the EU’s 21 member states and the UK. Madrid has the highest upper-end 2027 forecast at a 6.1 per cent to 9.2 per cent increase year over year, followed by Edinburgh at 6.2 per cent to 7.1 per cent.
Edinburgh in July became the first Scottish city to levy a citywide tourist tax, charged at 5 per cent of the booking cost. Elsewhere in the UK, Manchester and Liverpool have also imposed nightly charges on accommodation bookings, and Amex GBT expects other UK cities to follow.
The Monitor projects London at 3.6 per cent to 5.4 per cent, Paris at 3.1 per cent to 4.8 per cent and Frankfurt at 3.1 per cent to 4.7 per cent. Dublin has the region's lowest range at 2.7 per cent to 4 per cent.
Amex GBT expects year-over-year increases in most North American cities to stay at or below 3 per cent. The two exceptions are the "hotspots" of Mexico City, which has the region's highest projected range at 4.7 per cent to 7.1 per cent, and San Francisco, at 3.6 per cent to 5.4 per cent.
Across most US markets, the hotel construction pipeline is keeping supply in step with demand, according to the Monitor. Seattle has the region's lowest projection, flat to 0.8 per cent. Toronto is forecast at 0.5 per cent to 1.9 per cent.
In the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East conflict has raised airfares, though Amex GBT said corporates haven't responded by booking lower-tier hotels.
Seoul leads the region with a 2027 rate projection of 4.3 per cent to 6.4 per cent higher year over year. India's rate growth should moderate but remain strong, at 5 per cent to 5.5 per cent in Bengaluru and 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent in Delhi. Key business cities in China are expected to see flat to moderate rate growth as supply continues to outpace demand. Singapore is forecast to increase 0.8 per cent to 1.6 per cent.
Latin America has the Monitor's highest 2027 projected rate increases. São Paulo leads at 10.9 per cent to 12.2 per cent, driven by corporate demand, including from Brazil's expanding oil and gas sector. Brazil has more than 20,000 hotel rooms in its pipeline, but that inventory won't arrive in time to curb 2027 rates, according to Amex GBT, and the large share of independent hotels can make negotiations challenging.
Buenos Aires rates are forecast to increase 8.1 per cent to 8.7 per cent and Santiago 2.8 per cent to 4.2 per cent.
In the Middle East and Africa, the conflict continues to weigh on Gulf demand. Amex GBT projects Dubai rates will rise 1 per cent to 2 per cent and said buyers could negotiate even more favourable rates as hoteliers work to lure visitors back. Riyadh is forecast to increase 1.5 per cent to 3.2 per cent and Abu Dhabi 1.7 per cent to 4.1 per cent. Johannesburg has the region's highest range at 4.6 per cent to 7.3 per cent.