The growth in the production of alternative aviation fuels is set to slow during 2026, according to airline association IATA, which blamed “poorly designed” mandates and a “lack of policy support” for declining momentum.
IATA said that the total output of what the industry calls sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) would reach 1.9 million tonnes in 2025 – nearly double the amount produced in the previous year.
But this was a downgrade on IATA’s previous production estimate for this year of 2.1 million tonnes and it only expects alternative fuel production to reach 2.4 million tonnes in 2026.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, said: “Europe’s fragmented policies distort markets, slow investment and undermine efforts to scale SAF production. Europe’s regulators must recognise that its approach is not working and urgently correct course.
“The recent European Commission STIP (Sustainable Transport Investment Plan) announcement is a step forward though it lacks a clear timeline. Actions, not words, are what matter.”
Walsh added that many airlines who have vowed to use 10 per cent alternative fuels by 2030 may have to “re-evaluate these commitments”.
“SAF is not being produced in sufficient amounts to enable these airlines to achieve their ambition. These commitments were made in good faith but simply cannot be delivered,” he said.
IATA said the EU’s ReFuelEU mandate, which requires the sector to use at least 2 per cent SAF this year, had led to airlines paying “up to five times more than the price of conventional jet fuel and double the market price of SAF”, as fuel suppliers have pushed up their prices.
The association also criticised the UK’s SAF mandate for “triggering price spikes, leaving airlines to absorb the burden”.
IATA’s downbeat assessment was in stark contrast to the EU’s own report in October, which found that the continent’s aviation industry was “on track” to achieve the target of using at least 6 per cent alternative aviation fuels to power aircraft by 2030.