Increasing geopolitical uncertainty and rising inflation are among the biggest risk factors for business travel in 2023, according to the Risk Outlook report by medical and security services consultancy, International SOS.
Alongside perennial risks such as climate change and mental health concerns, the report underlined the importance of duty of care moving forward as travellers will require “much needed support” while businesses feel the pressure of ‘perma-crisis’ caused by geopolitical shifts, socio-economic challenges and increasing polarisation.
The report is based on a global survey of more than 1,200 senior risk management professionals, conducted by Ipsos MORI, and includes the insights of security and health experts from the Workforce Resilience Council.
It follows the recent publication of the organisation’s Risk Map 2023, which named Ukraine among the top five most dangerous places to visit in the next 12 months due to the ongoing Russian invasion.
The war in Ukraine was identified as “the defining security issues of 2022”, with the report forecasting increased geopolitical volatility as “increasing fissures” between Russia and the West will impact other conflicts and “exacerbate” longstanding geopolitical tensions.
On top of this, rising levels of social unrest are expected to negatively affect productivity. Forty-eight per cent of experts surveyed predict that cost of living pressures will impact domestic employees, while 33 per cent expect civil unrest will impact business travellers.
Polarisation at both a global and local level are also expected to “inflame” pre-existing triggers to social unrest, with the US and Western Europe identified as “high risk” locations.
Meanwhile, economic or political issues may provoke growing public dissatisfaction and cycles of unrest in destinations such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Ecuador, Peru and Iraq.
“The drivers for unrest will be numerous in 2023 and accounting for the impact of social unrest is going to be a key task for businesses in 2023,” said Sally Llewellyn, global security director, at International SOS.
“Mitigation starts with understanding the risk environments in which organisations operate, drivers of unrest and most likely impacts on employees and operations. This can also help businesses to ensure they have the right early warning systems in place, understand the potential triggers and what kind of organisational response is needed to counter any security issues.
“Education is also key. Employees and decision makers need to be knowledgeable about risks and steps their organisation is taking to mitigate them to keep the workforce safe,” she added.
The report suggests ongoing training and investment in crisis management in order to move away from ‘perma-crisis’ mode and build resilience.
Assessing risks to traveller health and wellbeing, the report forecasts increased health risk as a result of climate change, such as an acceleration in the emergence of new and old infectious diseases, and the increase of mosquito-borne diseases.
Dr Irene Lai, medical director at International SOS, warned: “Organisations are well-versed in how to respond to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. However, they should build on this existing knowledge and broaden crises and business continuity plans to include known health risks as well as potential health threats.
“Forward planning to ensure organisational resilience is critical as climate change is contributing to multiple crises occurring simultaneously, and another pandemic is inevitable,” she said.