The conflict in the Middle East again negatively affected global air demand in June, as it declined for the fourth consecutive month, although Europe still saw year-on-year growth, according to the latest update from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Total demand in June, as measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), declined 1.7 per cent year-on-year. Excluding the Middle East, demand declined by 0.6 per cent. Total capacity, as measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), decreased 1.3 per cent. Load factor dropped 0.4 percentage points to 84.2 per cent for the month.
International demand in June declined by 0.9 per cent year-on-year. But when excluding the Middle East, international demand increased by 1.1 per cent. Capacity was down 0.6 per cent compared with June 2025, while the load factor dropped 0.5 percentage points to 84 per cent.
IATA director general Willie Walsh said June’s performance was “largely due to domestic market declines in China, the US and Japan, and weak but improving international demand for Middle East carriers”.
“While Middle East performance improved, renewed tensions will not help the region's recovery, and the knock-on impact of rising fuel prices will continue to burden travellers with higher airfares,” added Walsh.
The Middle East reported the sharpest declines in June — down by 13.9 per cent year-on-year for demand and 11.3 per cent for capacity — and demand also dropped in North America and Asia-Pacific, down by 1.1 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively.
In Europe, demand rose slightly in June — by 0.8 per cent year-on-year — as capacity ticked up by 1.4 per cent. Load factors were down by 0.5 points to 87.5 per cent, although this was the highest level recorded across all global regions.
IATA noted that European airlines had benefited from the increase in direct flights to Asia since the start of the Iran war — routes between Europe and Asia saw growth in demand of 11 per cent year-on-year, which was the highest among all major international route corridors.
European growth losing momentum
Meanwhile, airports association ACI Europe’s latest figures revealed that passenger traffic at European airports rose by 2.6 per cent year-on-year during the first six months of 2026.
But ACI noted that the pace of growth in the second quarter “markedly slowed” with an increase of just 1.3 per cent in Q2 compared with 4.3 per cent growth in the first three months of the year.
The report attributed this slowdown in growth to the “impact of the war in the Middle East with much decreased traffic to the region and some airlines cutting capacity in response to higher jet fuel prices”.
Domestic passenger traffic in Europe, which was up by 3 per cent year-on-year, outperformed international growth (up 2.5 per cent) during the first half of 2026 — the first time that has happened since the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.
Among major European markets, Italy and Spain had the strongest growth in the first half of the year with passenger traffic increases of 4.2 per cent and 3.7 per cent respectively. While growth was sluggish in the UK (+0.4 per cent) and France (+0.6 per cent), and Germany saw a 1.2 per cent fall compared with the same period of 2025.
Olivier Jankovec, director general of ACI Europe said: “There is no escaping the fact that geopolitics has increasingly been shaping traffic performance this year. Growth has clearly lost momentum, with passenger traffic stalling — or even declining — in a number of national markets as of June.
“Looking ahead, fixing the Schengen Entry-Exit System (EES) must be Europe's immediate priority. Long, unpredictable and unacceptable waiting times at border control have started acting as a deterrent to travel — and undermine the standing and reputation of Europe as an efficient and welcoming destination.”