New research commissioned by IATA has suggested that best-in-class antigen
tests could replace more time-consuming and costly PCR testing without a significant
increase in the number of infected travellers missed.
A report by Oxera-Edge Health
found that the best antigen tests provide broadly comparable results to
PCR tests in accurately identifying infected travellers. The BinaxNOW antigen
test, for example, misses just one positive case in 1,000 travellers (based on
an infection rate of 1 per cent among travellers) and has similarly comparable
performance to PCR tests in levels of false negatives.
Antigen tests are typically 100 times faster and 60 per cent cheaper
than PCR tests, the research found.
The report looked at a number of sample air routes and
considered how much the cost of testing and quarantine would affect demand.
It considered a five-day business trip by a traveller from
Singapore to the UK paying an average £3,500 business class fare who would need
to quarantine in the UK for ten days on arrival and for 21 days on return home.
The report said quarantine and testing costs would double the total cost of the
trip to £7,000 and make it unlikely that passengers would fly on this route.
The report says that demand for business class flights on
London-New York is reduced by 8 per cent when factoring in the costs of PCR
testing compared to 3 per cent in the case of antigen testing. For London to Frankfurt,
the research suggests that demand disappears completely in the case of PCR testing
and by 51 per cent where antigen testing is used.
Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s director general and CEO, said, “Restarting
international aviation will energize the economic recovery from COVID-19. Along
with vaccines, testing will play a critical role in giving governments the
confidence to re-open their borders to travellers. For governments, the top
priority is accuracy.
“We are already seeing rapid testing becoming commonplace in non-travel
settings such as schools and workplaces. Extending its use to travel is a
logical step. Science backs this up. In real world conditions, antigen testing
is as effective as PCR testing in reducing the risk of cross-border
transmission.
“Meanwhile the cost and bureaucracy of PCR tests adds huge burdens
to families and businesses looking to travel. These are important
considerations in preparing for a successful restart.”