ONLY 12 MONTHS AGO, leading executives from the world of corporate travel descended on San Diego to examine the challenges thrown up by the most brutal economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
The outlook at the annual National Business Travel Association (NBTA) Convention & Exposition was bleak. Although some sort of recovery was inevitable, the consensus was that the landscape of the business travel sector had changed forever.
Fast-forward a year to the NBTA convention in Houston and the mood has lightened considerably after three consecutive quarters of growth. Speak to almost any of the 6,000 delegates and life does not seem to be so bad: load factors on aircraft are increasing, premium cabins are fuller, hotel occupancy levels are stronger and yields across the board are such that companies may actually return to profit. Is everyone getting carried away? Not a chance - especially if you ask the industry's top brass. In a panel session of chief executives, some of the game's biggest players did admit to being optimistic, but cautiously so.
Frits Van Paasschen is the chief executive of Starwood Hotels, whose brands include Le Méridien, Westin, Sheraton and W Hotels. He said: "About a year ago we saw the leisure market start to come back, which compensated for the fall in business travel. Now, with more movement out there we are cautiously optimistic about the future." However, he added: "The economic outlook is still uncertain. There is still high unemployment in the US, and the sovereign debt and euro crises have meant Europe has been the slowest to recover."
But while Europe and the US stagger out of the downturn, Van Paasschen said the emerging markets (Latin America, Russia, India and China) had shown excellent growth - an experience shared by global travel management company Carlson Wagonlit Travel. Douglas Anderson, CWT's chief executive, said the industry had come a long way since the disastrous end to 2008. "In North America we have seen double-digit growth and more than 20 per cent growth in Latin America," he said.
Anderson bemoaned the fact Europe is taking the longest to show genuine signs of recovery - though it is getting there. "The sovereign debt problem has caused companies to hold back and I think the banks still have some pain to endure," he warned. "It's better looking forward now than it did last year. The strengthening euro will help get business back on track, but it'll probably take a couple more quarters to work its way through."
By now, delegates will have returned home safe in the knowledge that, for the time being, things seem to be going in the right direction. However, in a world of conflict, global warming, volatile volcanoes, oil spills and pandemic health scares, you'd have to be a brave pundit to predict what the economic lie of the land will be when they reconvene next year in Denver, Colorado.