Passenger numbers at London Heathrow Airport are expected to fall this year due to “notable downward pressure” on demand caused by the ongoing Middle East crisis.
In its half-year report to investors, the UK’s largest airport said its new “base case” forecast for traffic was 83.6 million passengers, which would be a 1.1 per cent fall on last year’s record of 84.5 million travellers. But the lower end of its forecast would see Heathrow’s traffic slump by 5.2 per cent year-on-year to 80.1 million in 2026.
Heathrow had predicted passenger traffic rising to 85 million in 2026 in its previous financial report released in December 2025, but that was before the Middle East crisis.
The airport stressed that passenger demand has been “resilient” so far in 2026 but the outlook “remains uncertain”, which has impacted the forecast for the rest of the year.
“This reflects the risk that continued volatility in the Middle East could dampen broader traffic volumes, with impacts extending beyond the region to global travel demand over the remainder of the year,” explained Heathrow in its report.
During the first five months of the year, Heathrow’s traffic rose by 0.7 per cent year-on-year to 32.8 million passengers, thanks to the use of larger aircraft and a 5.8 per cent rise in connecting passengers following the disruption to air travel to the Middle East.
“Performance was driven by growth during Q1 however, since the onset of the Middle East conflict, passenger demand has softened, with both April and May trailing last year’s levels,” added Heathrow.
The fallout from the war is also impacting Heathrow’s earnings, with adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) set to fall by 7.5 per cent year-on-year from £2.03 billion in 2025 to £1.88 billion this year.
The airport said that aeronautical revenue is expected to drop by 2.9 per cent year-on-year, although this will be offset by a 5.4 per cent increase in other forms of revenue. This is expected to leave total revenue flat at around £3.6 billion.
Heathrow is also being hit by higher operating costs this year, with a 10.1 per cent year-on-year rise, due to higher employment costs and the rise in business rates.