Global airline passenger capacity in 2022 will grow 47 per cent
year over year, reaching 2015 levels, according to projections in global
aviation analytics firm Cirium's latest Airline Insights Review. Capacity in
2021 as measured in available seat kilometres is expected to return to 2006
levels, 30 per cent down from 2019 levels.
About 78 per cent of worldwide flights Cirium tracked
between 1 January and 31 October 2021 were domestic. International flights have
taken a slower time to recover, with restrictions still in place on certain
routes, but capacity still grew 6 per cent compared with the same period in
2020.
Worldwide domestic traffic, measured in passenger numbers,
is projected to be back to pre-pandemic numbers by the end of 2022, with
international passenger traffic reaching two-thirds of 2019 levels. Cirium
predicts that transatlantic travel won't return to 2019 levels until 2023, and
fares are likely to increase, with sustainability initiatives helping to push
fares up in the long term.
"The past year has had its challenges as we continued
to face fluctuating cases of Covid-19, new variants – most recently Omicron –
and varied vaccination programmes per country," said Cirium CEO Jeremy
Bowen in a statement. "There is light at the end of the tunnel as we see
international travel corridors reopening. However, we will continue to track
this momentum as new variants arise."
The report also predicts that corporate travel will
accelerate in 2022, led by an increase in business events and meetings. The
company is tracking online activity around business events, and Cirium's Diio
Signals product showed increased activity on the web around corporate events
and conferences. The report offered Barcelona as an example; the city hosted 10
major business events that impacted air travel in January 2019, 23 in January
2020 and only two in January 2021. But it has four on the books for January
2022 so far, "a clear sign that business events are slowly returning".
Sustainability
Cirium projects CO2 emissions will increase in 2022 as more flights return. CO2
emissions from flights in 2021 were 40 per cent less than pre-pandemic levels,
according to the report. However, airlines are returning more fuel-efficient
fleets to service, with many airline companies looking at fuel burn and how to
reach 2050 net-zero targets.
"Cirium anticipates the return to normalcy will usher
in more focus on sustainable travel practices, including younger, more
fuel-efficient aircraft, and the ability to more closely measure the impact of
airline travel on global greenhouse gas emissions," Bowen said.
A large area of demand for emissions data is coming from
corporations as they roll out strategies to reduce their emissions, including
their Scope 3 emissions from air travel, Cirium sustainable travel product
leader Robyn Grassanovits wrote in the report. "Corporate travel managers
hold the travel data from previous purchases and manage future travel
procurement decisions," she said. "But measuring emissions from air
travel purchases presents special challenges, and most travel managers simply
don’t have access to quality flight emission data to confidently address their
needs."
Grassanovits added that Cirium is in a pilot test with some
corporations to measure emissions down to the division, department, or traveller
level.
2021 business airports and routes
The US had nine of the 10 busiest airports based on arriving flights tracked
between 1 Januay and 31 October 2021. Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International
Airport topped the list, followed by Chicago's O'Hare International Airport and
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport. Other US cities on the list, in order,
included Denver, Charlotte, Los Angeles, Houston, Seattle and Phoenix, which
was tenth. China's Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport was the ninth
busiest.
In contrast, most of the top routes were for international
markets, with Asian pairs landing seven of the top 10. The top US route was
between Los Angeles and San Francisco, coming in at 14th globally, followed by
Las Vegas and Los Angeles flights, at 18th.