The aviation sector needs to make drastic changes, including developing sustainable e-fuels and changing how we fly, in order to reach zero carbon emissions before there is a forced reduction in how much people can fly, an influential group of experts has said.
This week’s World Travel Market – held virtually for the first time – saw the publication of a roadmap for decarbonising aviation that could help limit global temperature rises to below the 2°C that the world signed up to in the Paris Agreement and the lower 1.5°C rise that many countries are optimistically hoping to achieve.
One of the problems the roadmap reveals is that demand for aviation had been growing sharply every year until Covid and this growth looks certain to return once the pandemic is brought under control. The experts say that if international flights grow by 5 per cent year on year until 2050 – not an unlikely scenario – aviation would be responsible for 27 per cent of the entire global carbon budget.
The group producing the roadmap includes Professor Paul Peeters of Breda University of Applied Sciences, international aviation policy analyst Chris Lyle, Dr Harold Goodwin of Manchester Metropolitan University, Dr Carola Kantz of Germany’s VDMA (Mechanical Engineering Industry Association) and Job Rosenhart, senior advisor to the ministry of infrastructure and water management in the Netherlands.
The roadmap calls for the rapid development of e-fuels – sustainable aviation fuels produced directly from CO2 – initially from industrial chimneys and later taken directly from the atmosphere. These can be “dropped-in” and mixed with the current fossil fuels used by aircraft and the experts have called on governments and international bodies to mandate e-fuel blending rates, forcing airlines to make greater use of them.
Decarbonising aviation will also require manufacturers to fast-track the development of aircraft powered by electric engines and hydrogen fuel cells as well as requiring the sector to adopt carbon-friendly flight procedures, such as the Single European Sky and to avoid parts of the atmosphere where contrails develop.
Professor Paul Peeters said, “Until 2015, I thought the main option to significantly reduce aviation’s emissions would be to reduce the distances people fly and replace short-haul flights with sustainable transport modes. But currently all points to a combination of mandating e-fuels and the development of fuel-cell aircraft. For both, the industry is ready to deliver, but all now depends on sectoral and political will.”
“The climate crisis gathers pace and there is no longer time for procrastination, even though the world is struggling to deal with the coronavirus pandemic,” said Dr Harold Goodwin.
He added, “There is an alternative. The industry should require governments to force the aviation sector to develop and adopt zero-carbon fuels before there is a forced reduction in flying.”