The revolution in distribution is only just beginning, consultant John Caldwell told delegates at a National Business Travel Association (NBTA) conference in London.
Mr Caldwell, president of Washington-based Caldwell Associates, said de-regulation of the GDSs was leading to dramatic changes in distribution in the States.
He predicted that it would come to Europe by the end of 2007 and that there could also be major changes here.
He said the old situation where GDSs charged airlines fees to distribute their content and in turn paid agents a commission based on volume was a "simple but high cost solution."
De-regulation had changed that model. Airlines were now determined to cut their distribution costs to the bone by paying GDSs less. At the same time, new distribution channels, including airline web sites and GNEs were coming onto the market.
"The GDSs are the last high cost distribution channel facing the airlines, like commissions once were. But if GDSs lose an airline's fee, they will bar it or pass that loss in fees on to the corporates,” Mr Caldwell said.
Richard Tams, head of corporate sales for British Airways, said the carrier was not in favour of full de-regulation in Europe.
"We would be very much in favour of lighter regulations. We think they are too heavy at the moment," he said.
Speaking of the situation in Europe were Air France, Lufthansa and Iberia all have a stake in Amadeus, Mr Tams said: "If these airlines do divest themselves of their ownership you will see changes in Europe.
"But unless they do, I don't think there will be anything happening."
Keith Mullineaux, regional travel manager EMEA for General Electric, told the forum attended by more than 100 delegates: "We would rather de-regulation did not come about.
"It will have a negative impact on costs, transaction time, leverage and control. I don't feel there would be any advantage for the corporate.
"We have a single GDS globally and if we did not get access to full content we would have to look to Plan B but at the moment we don't have a Plan B.
"De-regulation would not be as good as the current situation. If it comes to it, we would have to develop Plan B."
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