A lack of expansion at the UK’s main airports will have a chilling effect on the UK economy, according to analysis of new government figures by Virgin Atlantic.
The current government has published a revised set of predictions for the growth in air traffic over the next 40 years.
According to the figures, the UK will receive three million fewer international visitors to the UK than previously forecast in a 2009 report under the previous Labour government.
The Department for Transport’s new UK Aviation Forecast predicted 45 million visits would be made to the UK by foreign residents in 2030, compared to the 48 million previously thought.
The contraction in projections is due in part to constraints on airport capacity in place under the current government, which has ruled out expansion at all Heathrow, Stansted and Gatwick.
The report predicts: “Without new runways the three largest London airports will be at capacity by 2030, and all growth beyond 2040 will occur at regional airports.”
The loss of 3 million foreign travellers will mean the UK economy misses out on £1.7 billion tourism spend, according to Virgin’s calculations, given that the average visitor spends £563 per trip.
Julie Southern, Virgin Atlantic’s chief commercial officer, said the revised passenger forecasts were of “extreme concern”.
“The loss of three million inbound passengers will have an alarming impact on the UK economy,” she said.
“Aviation has a crucial role to play in UK tourism and the wider economic recovery, contributing over £50bn to GDP in 2009.
“But this economic contribution is being stifled by an unpalatable mix of constraints on growth, ever increasing air passenger duty, and prohibitive visa processes.”
Southern called on the British government to reconsider its approach to aviation.
“At a time when kick-starting the economy is such a priority for the Government, it must consider this projected drop in passenger numbers and how this can be addressed as part of the current Sustainable Aviation policy process,” she said.
“These projections also show how crucial it will be for the industry to get a favourable outcome from the current consultation on APD.”