2006 started with a spectacular re-alignment and consolidation among the major travel management companies (TMCs). It was a trend which continued throughout the year as the agents manoeuvred to get into better positions to meet the changing challenges of their role.
2007 begins with just slight inklings that the airline industry might be about to embark on similar consolidation and re-alignment. The signs are not strong: talks here, rebuffs there, plans to be announced elsewhere.
But there does seem to be some feeling in the industry that things can not go on as before.
The need for change in the aviation industry is far stronger than it was in the world of the TMCs. Their realistic acknowledgement of the situation: that Hogg Robinson and BCD Holdings, joint owners of Business Travel International (BTI), could not reach agreement on a joint way forward and that TQ3 Travel Solutions had not made the impact its founders had hoped brought change.
In aviation, despite huge losses over the past five years, airlines have been prepared to trim and adjust but have been more reluctant to consider fundamental changes.
Giovanni Bisignani, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), said in December that airlines were likely to make a $500m loss in 2006 but move into a $2.5bn profit in 2007, the first profit since 2000.
While this is good news, the vast bulk of this profit is in Europe ($1.5bn) and Asia ($1.2bn). American aviation is set to make $200m which is unimpressive to say the least.
This is at a time when more people are flying than ever. According to figures from OAG, the travel and transport information company, scheduled airlines, including low cost carriers, offered a record 3.3bn seats in 2006.
Duncan Alexander, managing director at OAG, said: "At a very conservative estimate of a 70% load factor that means over 2.3 billion passengers will have flown during 2006.
"That is more than 6.3 million people flying every day of the year on either business or leisure."
In such boom times, airlines should be making a profit but major US carriers are still reporting regular losses.
Perhaps unsurprisingly the main moves for consolidation have come in North America. US Airways has made an unwelcome $8bn bid for Delta Air Lines. This has been rejected by Delta which wishes to emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection this spring as a "stand alone" airline.
Its ceo Jerry Grinstein said the carrier, which reported a $49m loss for last November, was still on course to emerge from Chapter 11. But a group of its unsecured creditors is said to be planning to hire former Continental Airways ceo Gordon Bethune to evaluate Delta's future plans against the US Airways' bid. This one might not be over yet.
At the same time, Continental and United, two other US airlines familiar with Chapter 11, are said to be in talks on a possible merger.
One surprise development over the Christmas break was the announcement by the Icelandic group FL not only that it has acquired a near 6% stake in AMR, parent company of American Airlines, but also that its ceo Hannes Smarason was seeking a meeting with the carrier's board to urge it to take part in consolidation.
These might be no more than straws in the wind but again they might amount to something more substantial.
Europe has little reason to gloat at the grim situation in America. Its main legacy airliners, BA, Air France/KLM and Lufthansa and many of the larger low cost carriers like Ryanair, easyJet and Air Berlin might be making good profits.
But there is a host of the smaller airlines, often national flag carriers, which are faring substantially less well. Apart from the usual suspects like Alitalia and Olympic, you can add Malev, CSA Czech Airlines, Austrian Airlines and Finnair where finances and prospects could be a lot better.
News that AirAsia and other carriers, perhaps including Virgin Atlantic, are reportedly going to announce what is in effect a global low cost alliance tomorrow (January 5), could be significant.
The main area where legacy carriers seek to make their profits is long haul. If this is challenged with the same industry altering effect as the no frills operators have had on short haul, the legacy carriers may be in for a bumpier 2007 than they could have imagined.
Consolidation might then become a necessity rather than a matter of choice.
* see BTE's recruitment site www.businesstraveljobs.com