Back in July when the UK government re-introduced a
quarantine requirement for travellers arriving from Spain with just six hours’
notice, the country’s airline industry quickly came to the realisation that
their recovery would be a very bumpy road. Carriers, travel agencies, hospitality
providers, associations and even MPs called for more clarity on how officials were deciding why
and when to remove countries from the list of travel corridors so that
companies could at least attempt to plan their business activities accordingly. Now Belgium, France and the Netherlands have also been removed from the safe list.
For business travel, the news complicated an already rocky
situation. Just as travellers were starting to regain the confidence to get
back on the road, they were faced with the reality that trips to other
countries came with the risk of having to self-isolate for a further 14 days on
their return to the UK without prior planning.
The situation has caused a sizeable downturn in what was a
positive outlook for airlines, with forward bookings for September and beyond
weakening. This has forced airlines such as Ryanair and Finnair to cut capacity so they won’t be at risk of operating empty flights, while
Easyjet has confirmed it will close its bases at Stansted, Southend and
Newcastle airports, with all flights from Southend axed altogether.
The industry’s reaction has been to renew calls for the UK
and other EU governments to implement a testing regime at airports, international
train stations and other ports of entry to allow those who test negative for
Covid-19 to avoid 14-day quarantine periods, which are seen as barriers to
travel. While some governments have implemented testing strategies in some form
or another, others are reluctant to use the method as a panacea for restarting
the world economy.
Last week, the government of Iceland announced it would begin
offering incoming passengers the option of taking two coronavirus tests – one on
arrival and another five or six days later (the average incubation period for
Covid-19). If both tests return a negative result, the person will be able to
leave quarantine early. Germany also recently implemented mandatory testing for
all travellers arriving from high-risk areas. Those who test positive are
required to enter self-isolation for 14 days. Other countries with testing schemes
or requirements include Italy, Greece, France, Austria, Czech Republic,
Slovakia, Slovenia and Cyprus, among others.
But in the UK, the government has given no indication that
it will consider testing as a way around mandatory quarantine periods, instead
preferring to stick to its policy of opening travel corridors with countries
that have an infection rate below 20 cases in 100,000 residents. Speaking to
the media after Spain was removed from the safe list, culture secretary Oliver
Dowden said testing is “not a silver bullet” because people can return a
negative result while still incubating the virus.
Hence calls for any testing scheme to include a double-screening
requirement like the one now available in Iceland. The UK government’s own
health advisors at Sage even suggested at a meeting back in June that the two-test
method could be an effective way to reduce the required self-isolation period from
14 days to ten.
But is testing really the answer we’re all so desperately
searching for?
Speaking on the first episode of the BTN Europe Week in
Review podcast earlier this month, Paul Tilstone, managing partner at Festive
Road, said there are two key factors that would have a “fundamental effect” on confidence
in travel. “One is it needs to be widespread. You need to know what you’re
going through at the other end – the amount of time it takes and the
environment you’re going to be tested in. The second is it needs to be
reliable, and I’m not sure there’s a sense that there’s any reliability to all
the tests being done at the moment.”
David Bishop, chief commercial officer at Gray Dawes Group,
pointed out that with some testing schemes there is a cost element, which could
deter some businesses from allowing employees to travel abroad. “But overall, I
think the ability to take a test on departure within one-and-a-half to two
hours and then the same when you arrive would make people feel a lot more
confident about getting on that plane. It’s not just about you, it’s also what
you know about the other passengers on your flight. If I know I’m safe, they’re
safe and doing the same at the other end, then this just becomes the new normal
and the new way of flying. But it has to be a global standard so that everyone
knows everyone else on board has gone through the same procedure.”
Daniel Tallos, travel manager EMEA at Nike, said: “The
standards are something that would be difficult to work out because governments
are prescribing different tests based on different technology and different
lead times. So even finding the right information is very challenging. Back before
the pandemic we were all worried about finding the right visa rules and
passport rules, and now it’s going beyond that. I would be happy even if the
information was just clearly traceable and could be scaled so that people can
find it on a self-service basis. Today that’s not the case. So getting to
international standards is a long way away.”
When asked how he would want the information around testing
to be consolidated, Tallos said he would “love to be able to go to my TMC if
they were ready to act as the consolidator for all this information, but this
hasn’t been a core part of their profession”.
Bishop added that it would be difficult for TMCs to provide
advice on testing schemes because there is currently no single source of
information, “so we’d be liable if we got it wrong”.
According to the International Air Transport Association
(IATA), any testing regime would need to be fast, accurate and scalable and
would also need to be paired with an effective contact tracing system. Director
general and CEO Alexandre de Juniac said: “We need to learn to manage the risks
of living with Covid-19 with targeted and predictable measures that will safely
rebuild traveller confidence and shattered economies.”
In the meantime, the UK government has said that
implementing tests on arrival is logistically difficult and risks missing some
cases, so it would appear quarantine is here to stay.