With new Covid-19 variants emerging and cases rising,
growing confidence in business travel’s recovery took a hit in the closing
months of 2020 – but Q3 of 2021 is still viewed as the moment when it could
return in meaningful volumes.
The shift in current business travel activity was identified
in the European results of GBTA’s latest poll and reflects concerns around new
Covid variants when the research was conducted in December.
Sixty-nine per cent of the European travel professionals
surveyed in December said domestic business travel was suspended – an increase of
seven per cent from the previous poll a month beforehand. Meanwhile, the
percentage of companies planning to resume domestic business travel in the next
one to three months fell significantly, from 45 per cent to 18 per cent.
ATTITUDES TO TRAVEL
• 69 per cent of European business travel professionals said
domestic travel remains suspended (up 7 per cent on the previous poll). The
figure had surpassed 90 per cent at the height of the pandemic but retreated to
52 per cent last summer when some domestic travel returned between spikes in
cases.
• There was less movement in attitudes to international business
travel, where there remains little confidence: 91 per cent of companies remain grounded
and only 2 per cent envisage resuming international travel in the next one to
three months.
• The downturn was also observed among employee attitudes to
travel, with the percentage of travel managers who say their staff are ‘somewhat’
or ‘very willing’ to travel falling from 54 per cent to 30 per cent. The number
of travel managers who said their colleagues are ‘not willing’ to travel has
risen from 15 per cent to 36 per cent.
• More than a third (35 per cent) of survey respondents say
their company plans to resume non-business critical travel in five to eight
months, with 18 per cent saying they would do so in the next one to four
months, 18 per cent in nine months or more, and 27 per cent unsure. A nominal
two per cent have already resumed non-business critical travel.
Source: GBTA poll of more than 150 European business
travel professionals conducted in December 2020
Nevertheless, views on longer term recovery continue to
point to Q3 of this year as a turning point for business travel, with more than
a third (35 per cent) of survey respondents saying their company plans to
resume non-business critical travel in five to eight months.
How closely those expectations are tied to vaccination rates
is difficult to tell, but there is concern that delays in supply from
manufacturers could derail the European Union’s goal: to have 70 per cent of the
adult population of each member state vaccinated against Covid-19 by the end of
the summer. If that were the case, the quarter currently viewed as potentially
heralding the restart of business travel could shift back yet again.
“At the moment we’re looking at Q3 for people returning to
offices, to having meetings and to business travel. That seems to be the
consensus and is consistent in our research,” Catherine Logan, regional VP, EMEA, GBTA,
told BTN Europe this week.
“There
is no doubt that the new variants and rising rates of infection at the start of
the year have had an impact on the latest poll results, particularly in Europe.
While we know members are keen to get back on the road, the current situation
brings new challenges and short-term delays.”
Those challenges are currently being felt by the EU which is
both embroiled in a row with vaccine manufacturers over delays to supply, but
also trying to balance its principles – freedom of movement chief among them –
with the health risk to its populace as it seeks more consistency towards
testing, quarantine and border closures.
At a European Council meeting convened last week to discuss its
coordinated response to the pandemic, president Charles Michel said: “No
indiscriminate travel bans should be imposed. However, measures restricting
non-essential travel in the EU may be needed to contain the spread of the
virus.”
Notes from the gathering concluded that borders must stay
open to ensure the functioning of the single market, including the flow of
essential goods and services, but added: “While upholding its principles, the
Council may need to review its recommendations on intra-EU travel and
non-essential travel into the EU in light of the risks posed by the new virus
variants.”
As Davide Maistro of public affairs organisation Grayling
says, the EU’s 27 member states can only close their borders “as a last resort”
and only in exceptional circumstances that include health and terror-related threats.
“Freedom of movement is one of the key principles of the EU so it is one of the
last things to fall,” he says.
In a further statement this week, the European Commissioner for Justice,
Didier Reynders, said: “What we need now in view of the new variants is even
more coordination and a joint European effort to discourage non-essential
travel. Border closures will not help; common measures will.”
EU RECOMMENDATIONS
At a meeting of the European Council last week, member
states unanimously agreed on a recommendation setting a “common framework for
the use of rapid antigen tests and the mutual recognition of COVID-19 test
results across the EU”, a move it said is “essential in order to facilitate
cross-border movement, cross-border contact tracing and treatment.”
In addition, the EU’s Health Security Committee recommended
any travel restrictions in place among countries should be “proportionate and
non-discriminatory”, as should quarantine and testing requirements, while
members should consider shortening quarantine where travellers provide a
negative test five to seven days after entry.
This week, the European Commission proposed additional
coordination in mapping risk areas and stricter measures for travellers from
high-risk countries.
“The common map and a common approach to proportionate,
non-discriminatory restrictions must still guide our efforts. What we need now
in view of the new variants is even more coordination and a joint European
effort to discourage non-essential travel. Border closures will not help,
common measures will,” said Commissioner for Justice, Didier Reynders.
The deterrence of non-critical travel was emphasised in a
further report from the Commission: “All non-essential travel should be
strongly discouraged until the epidemiological situation has considerably
improved.”
Maistro, however, told BTN Europe: “There’s only so much the
[European] institutions can do. They can issue recommendations but everything
that prevents free movement of people is in the hands of the member countries. How
single states assess the severity [of health risks] and how they respond is
national policy.”
He continued: “The 27 [member states] try to have a
consistent approach, but what we’re seeing is friction between doing things
together and the reaction that many governments [independently] have. The lack
of predicatability across the board is a real issue.”
Logan agreed: “The biggest barrier to a return to travel for
European travel managers is the complexity. Rules change in an arbitrary way,
so quickly, and there’s no consistency applied. It’s a patchwork approach. Everything
needs to come together.”
She
continued: “Some of the more restrictive proposals currently being discussed,
like mandatory quarantine periods of up to two weeks, or border closures to
fully eradicate international travel, must be considered in light of the
economic damage and effectiveness.
“Multiple
studies have called into question the effectiveness of mandatory quarantine
periods – which can be difficult and expensive to enforce – and of implementing a
blanket approach rather than the targeted and proven pre-departure testing
route.”
This week alone has seen both Ireland and the UK introduce
quarantine hotels for particular international arrivals, while Norway – part of
the Schengen area but not an EU member – will only allow its residents to enter
the country from 29 January. Other countries could well follow suit, with restrictions
on European travel currently moving only in one direction.