AMERICAN EXPRESS has published its much-respected Global Business Travel Forecast for 2005, which indicates a continued steady revival of international business travel.
Although the pace varies significantly by region and country, published air and hotel prices are expected to rise incrementally next year as demand recovers, outpacing the growth of supply in several markets.
At the same time, increased competition - particularly in the airline sector in several regional markets - is likely to dampen any significant increases in travel costs.
For 2005, American Express forecasts that global economy/short haul fares will rise by 0-3%, and international business fares by 2-5%.
On the hotel side, room rates for both mid-range and upper-range properties will increase by 1-3%. Budget carriers will continue to impact the airline industry in 2005.
Attempts by European legacy airlines to significantly increase fares, however, are likely to be dampened by competition from low cost carriers, a trend that has gathered momentum over the past two years.
Asia has also experienced phenomenal activity in mass travel arena. In India alone, ten budget airlines are in, at least, the planning stage.
Low cost activity has also been strong in Thailand, Singapore and Australia, and new entrants are making inroads in Japan, China and the Gulf States.
http://home3.americanexpress.com/corp/pc/2004/pdf/ae_gbtf2005.pdf