The business travel outlook for next year will remain ‘subdued’, with flat to moderate rate increases expected across air, hotel and ground transportation, the annual American Express Global Business Travel (GBT) forecast has found.
It highlights the continued slowdown of the Chinese economy, depressed oil prices, Brexit, growing populist politics and increased security concerns, as major reasons for the flat outlook in 2017.
GBT’s VP Rodolfo Elizondo said buyers should focus on the things they can control such as demand management, compliance and traveller satisfaction to reduce risk and increase savings.
Air
The study showed that global demand for air travel remains at a record high, persistently low fuel prices and strong competition will help keep airline fares in check.
Hotel
Hotel performance will improve moderately and prices will remain flat in most regions with the exception of Latin America where rates will decline slightly, and Asia Pacific, where the impact varies greatly by country.
Ground transport
Ground transportation has undoubtedly felt the impact of new industry players and rates should remain flat as capacity continues to exceed demand.
Americas airfare and hotel rate forecast
| Air Short-Haul Economy | Air Long-Haul Business | Hotel |
Argentina | -6.5% | 0.5% | 15.5% |
Brazil | -4.0% | -2.0% | -3.5% |
Canada | -3.8% | -3.0% | -1.2% |
Chile | 0.5% | 1.5% | 3.5% |
Mexico | 1.0% | 2.3% | 0% |
U.S. | -3.0% | -1.5% | 3.6% |
| | | | |
EMEA airfare and hotel rate forecast
| Air Short-Haul Economy | Air Long-Haul Business | Hotel |
France | -1.5% | -1.0% | -0.3% |
Germany | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0% |
Poland | 4.0% | 3.0% | -0.4% |
S. Africa | -0.5% | 2.0% | -1.0% |
U.A.E. | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0% |
U.K. | -2.0% | -3.0% | 0.2% |
APAC airfare and hotel rate forecast
| Domestic Economy | International Business | Hotel |
Australia | 0.3% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
China | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% |
India | 0.5% | 1.5% | 3.0% |
Japan | 0.0% | -0.8% | 3.0% |
Singapore | N/A | -1.0% | 1.0% |