Aviation capacity in the South East of England is on the agenda once again
Gareth Morgan is a political lobbyist and associate director with Cavendish Communications (www.cavendishpc.co.uk). He is an advisor to the Guild of Travel Management Companies (GTMC).
THE DEFINING political feeling since May has been uncertainty. Uncertainty in terms of who would form the coalition, uncertainty around who would get what portfolio and who would be the leader of the opposition, and - most importantly - uncertainty about what budgets would look like for the next spending period.
We are beginning to know where we stand, but only after months of hardball negotiation from the biggest players in government. Iain Duncan-Smith and Liam Fox have been engaged in titanic battles with the Treasury over their own fiefdoms, while Boris Johnson has drawn a line in the sand by stating he might not seek re-election as London's mayor if funding for Crossrail and the tube upgrades is not forthcoming.
So, now that everyone knows how much money they haven't got, we will see government departments pressing the accelerator in terms of implementing policies.
One issue about to come back on to the agenda is aviation capacity in the South East of England. It is an area of policy that the coalition government has no real desire to discuss, let alone tackle. Its mantra is that Heathrow needs to be made better, not bigger - it isn't going to expand on this watch, and there have been strong words regarding any airport expansion in the South East.
The springboard for aviation capacity's return to the national agenda is the Airport Economic Regulation Bill entering parliament. This is ostensibly about encouraging competition by replacing the price caps placed on airports with a more flexible structure that reduces bureaucracy and political involvement. In reality its passage through parliament will likely see discussion take in much wider topics, including new runway development.
However, the expectation that there will be a return to the pre-general election battle-lines over airport capacity may not be entirely accurate.
Labour's new leader, Ed Miliband, faces the press
The election of Ed Miliband presents something of an unknown. It is well documented that he was the voice around the last government's cabinet table arguing that the third runway at Heathrow should not be given the go-ahead. Indeed, during the Labour leadership campaign the Shadow Transport team's plans to investigate South East airport capacity and raise it as a political issue again were felt to be highly dependent on David Miliband winning the contest. With Ed Miliband at the helm things are much less certain.
A serious conversation then is to take place within the opposition, but what hope a similar discussion takes place within the government? At first glance the chances look slim. It was a big election issue for the Conservatives, who to some extent hung their new green credentials on it. Similarly, the Liberal Democrats have a long standing opposition to the proposals that they are unlikely to back down on. Hope, however, lies with the right wing of the Conservative Party. They have long felt uneasy about opposing a scheme that has so much business support, but kept quiet with an election at stake. This wing of the party has been stirred to life both by the prime minister's clumsy attempts to curb the power of the 1922 Committee, and their knowledge that the need for party unity will potentially allow them to get their own way on select issues. What remains to be seen is whether airport expansion is one of their touchstone issues.
What this will really boil down to is how much appetite there is for any politician, particularly those implementing unpopular cuts or establishing themselves as a new leader, to reopen an issue that doesn't promise any particular electoral advantage.