BBT columnist and political lobbyist Gareth Morgan looks at the fallout from the Airports Commission's shortlist for expansion
So, there we have it. We know the shortlist of airport options that Sir Howard Davies’ Airports Commission will consider. It should be pretty simple now – Davies and his team will look into these in more depth, make their final recommendation and then the airport capacity issue is put to bed.
Or not. In fact, the lobbying around the decision has stepped up a gear, and it is interesting to run through the various camps at play.
First, we have the shortlisters – those who now have everything to play for. Gatwick and Heathrow have well-oiled machines already in play and full activity plans lined up – to the extent that one executive recently indicated to me there is a “mini-industry” at work at his airport. The left-field option is proposed by Heathrow Hub, to extend the northern runway – up to now an option that didn’t actually have the support of Heathrow Ltd itself.
Then there’s the half-in, half-out contender. London mayor Boris Johnson used his sway to ensure that the Thames Estuary airport isn’t completely dead in the water. Rather, it was partially resuscitated for another six months and given a second chance to put forward the data supporting the concept. Johnson’s aviation adviser, Daniel Moylan, is doing the lobbying spade-work by touring Conservative constituency parties in London making the case.
The main message from those who missed out on the final cut is that they aren’t giving up. Airports like Stansted continue to press to be considered in the post-2030 phase through engaging with pro-business MPs. Meanwhile, Birmingham airport has orchestrated a campaign among West Midlands MPs calling for their airport to be allowed to add a second runway of their own before 2050.
The nimbys – the 2M Group, consisting of 20 councils opposed to Heathrow expansion, and the anti-Heathrow community organisation HACAN – continue to stridently oppose expansion and use all their local links to ensure a steady stream of opposition coming from MPs in the area, to the extent that it is very hard for a political party to win in areas, such as Richmond, without being overtly ‘anti’.
The just-make-a-decision camp – mostly emanating from business organisations, such as London First – is promoting campaigns such as ‘Let Britain Fly’ that are looking for commitments from all political parties to accept and implement the findings of Davies’ work. For them, regardless of the option selected, success is seeing any decision at all, and they have a team of in-house lobbyists seeking to ensure this issue isn’t parked for another decade.
Finally, there remains a committed group of individuals and organisations who want the new hub (Heathrow) to connect into HS2. This is ostensibly about better-integrated transport, but many of its supporters are driven by the fact that such a route would mean areas like the Chilterns are spared the HS2 upheaval as is currently planned. Well-financed and well-connected, they are a force within the Conservative ranks and will make their move as the HS2 bill makes its way through parliament this spring.
For a process that was designed to take the politics out of the decision, we can actually see one that is crawling with agendas, lobbyists, MPs, councils, mayors and advisors, all throwing considerable resource at making sure their own plans come to fruition.
Gareth Morgan is a political lobbyist and director with Cavendish Communications (cavendishpc.co.uk). He is an advisor to the Guild of Travel Management Companies (GTMC)