A bad year for business may be what’s needed to break the airport capacity stalemate
THE NEW YEAR always presents itself as a platform for a political re-launch, but it is doubtful whether the government will be able to get the momentum it craves this time. It was reported that the process the coalition went through to develop the Autumn Statement gave them a renewed sense of purpose, but however good their internal dynamics may be, the external world remains daunting.
The end of January 2013 will see the first growth figures come out for Q4 of 2012, and it is vital for the government that there is good news in there. Q3 of 2012 saw 1 per cent of growth and the coalition needs some evidence to ensure their narrative about their medicine working actually has some traction. There are already credit rating agency vultures circling the carcass of the chancellor’s promise on debt reduction, and another blow to the UK’s economy might just prompt that downgrade of the UK’s AAA status, the retention of which was one of the chancellor’s self-imposed tests of success.
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What does this mean for the travel sector? Well it might, bizarrely, be good news for those supporters of increased capacity at Heathrow if we continue to drag along the bottom this year.
The whole shift in thinking around airport capacity has come from business beating the drum and claiming that lack of capacity in the south-east was harming expansion prospects. The PM and chancellor, even with their hands tied by their Lib Dem partners, came around to the point of view that business growth was being stymied by airport capacity restraints. While frustration still abounds (among Conservative MPs also) with the Davies Airports Commission and its long delivery time (end of 2015), there is a glimmer of light in the form of the interim report coming at the end of this year. This will recommend, among other things, the short-term operational changes that can boost capacity at the UK’s main hub.
For the business community, claiming that they need to access key markets to grow, the run-up to this report must include calls for mixed-mode, as it is the only way that any capacity at Heathrow will be added in the next 5-8 years. Another year of minimal growth, increased borrowing, missed debt targets and a dodgy AAA status might well provide the impetus for the government to say that the national interest comes ahead of local objections, and allow an extra boost to capacity – underpinned by the narrative that they are taking the tough decisions required to bring about growth.
A great example here is that of Department for Communities and Local Government and planning. The chancellor lent on Eric Pickles to go further, parachuted his men into ministerial roles there and made “planning” a key part of his story about kick-starting growth. This was in the face of Telegraph and Daily Mail opposition, the outrage of the National Trust and all those Conservative MPs fighting developers on their own patch. If they can do this for housing, why not for aviation?
Gareth Morgan is a political lobbyist and director with Cavendish Communications (www.cavendishpc.co.uk). He is an advisor to the Guild of Travel Management Companies (GTMC)