One of the downsides of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act is that we all know when the general election is going to be, which means that campaigning starts sooner – and lasts longer. Already there’s a sense that election fatigue is kicking in – expect screams as people hear “long-term economic plan” or “hard-working families” one-too-many times.
However, while there is much that is predictable, there is also plenty that isn’t – we are sailing in unknown territory as 7 May approaches. Observe the low showing in the national opinion polls enjoyed by the two main parties. The fact that they are both bumping along in the low 30s means that a whopping 35 per cent is being carved up between UKIP, the SNP, the Green Party, the Liberal Democrats and ‘others’.
The vagaries of the political system we employ means that this doesn’t necessarily translate into the same proportion of seats but, even so, these parties (particularly the SNP) are predicted to take enough seats that the magic figure of 326 MPs needed to get a majority in Parliament won’t be hit by either the Tories or Labour.
Of course, no majority was secured in 2010, but what makes this time around different is that polls suggest no two parties (let’s consign Lab and Con combining to fiction) can hit 326 either. If we are to have another coalition (a confidence-and-supply arrangement is more likely) it will potentially mean three parties having to join forces; some even posit another general election before the five-year term limit is reached.
The unpredictability of how this will pan out means that, despite hearing the same election slogans time and time again, we remain glued to each You Gov or Ashcroft poll that comes out, looking for a hint as to what may come.
Amid all this psephological musing, it is important to remember that some of these potential outcomes have real consequences for the business traveller.
Consider Air Passenger Duty (APD) for a moment – one of the key demands from the SNP will be the rapid devolution of APD to the Scottish Parliament, which has pledged to cut the tax by 50 per cent. Note also the indications that this will subsequently be reviewed to check if the cut prompted more travel – if the answer is “yes” then reducing it further will be considered. This could have a profound impact on northern airport connectivity, if travellers decide to go across the border to save money.
Then contemplate perhaps the biggest political decision relevant to business travel – the reaction to Sir Howard Davies’ Airports Commission’s final report (there is, by the way, a suggestion that Davies may delay its expected release, soon after the election, until there is more stability – that is, until a coalition/minority government has formed). Would the Liberal Democrats refuse to form a government that countenances a third Heathrow runway? Will anyone want to back Heathrow if they think another election is around the corner and it may cost them crucial seats in west London?
These are huge questions for the country – and the business sector. At the moment, none of us is clear where the chips will fall...