Time is running out to influence the government’s decision on whether Heathrow will be allowed to expand, says ABTA chief executive Mark Tanzer
MPs have just returned to Westminster and the media is understandably interested in Jeremy Corbyn – to see how the new Labour leader will operate, and what policies Labour will adopt.
As MPs and party activists head off to Bournemouth, Brighton, Manchester, and Aberdeen for the annual autumn party conference season, one policy area that will be high on the agenda is airport capacity. A team from ABTA will be attending all of the conferences, putting forward the case for improved UK competitiveness and connectivity in aviation.
At first glance, the political winds do not seem favourable for a speedy and robust decision on airport capacity. Jeremy Corbyn, Sadiq Khan, the Labour candidate for London Mayor, and the most likely Conservative mayoral candidate Zac Goldsmith, have all previously declared opposition to a new runway at Heathrow.
However, the decision lies with the government, which has promised to respond to the Airports Commission’s recommendation by the end of this year. The mood music in Westminster has been shifting since the general election.
Since 2012, ABTA has commissioned the research agency Com Res to ask MPs whether or not they agreed with the statement that “the UK risks being left behind competitively if a comprehensive plan to increase airport capacity is not adopted in the next 12 months”.
In 2012, 71 per cent of those asked agreed. In 2013 and 2014, the number remained static at seven in ten MPs (70 per cent in 2013, 70 per cent in July 204 and 69 per cent in October 2014).
However, earlier this year, that number rose by 8 percentage points from October 2014 to 77 per cent. This is a significant rise and a clear signal that a growing number of MPs recognise that doing nothing is economically unacceptable.
Support for action on airport capacity seems to be growing most quickly on the government’s backbenches.
In the 2015 Com Res poll, Conservative MPs are particularly concerned that urgent airport capacity action is needed, with 83 per cent of those asked agreeing with the statement. The number of Tory MPs who agreed in 2012 was only 72 per cent – so this represents a significant rise.
ABTA has been calling for urgent action for years, and some of this urgency seems to now be filtering through to government.
The complexity of the decision, the local impacts of expansion, and the political interests of many west London MPs have meant that this important decision has been postponed for too long.
Whilst of course these concerns are important and need to be addressed, aviation has demonstrated its commitment to growing sustainably.
ABTA backs the recommendation of the Airports Commission and believes that the government should make the decision to pave the way for getting a third runway built at Heathrow. We initially advocated extra runways at both Heathrow and Gatwick as part of the commission's consultation.
We continue to see adequate capacity at both of these airports as essential to future-proof the growing demand for flights in both the business and leisure sectors.
Constraints at our hub airport are particularly acute. The lack of direct routes, particularly to the economically important BRIC nations, runs the risk of causing significant damage to our economy.
It would be shameful if business travellers chose to fly from Schiphol, Charles De Gaulle, Frankfurt or Madrid airports simply because their countries’ governments, unlike ours, had taken the decision to provide extra capacity well before it was needed.
The window to influence this decision is rapidly closing, and I suspect a decision is all but made. It is very welcome that the government and parliament seem to be aware that further inaction is not acceptable.
The UK’s aviation minister Robert Goodwill told ABTA’s Travel Matters Conference in June that the government will “take the decision that has been put off for far too long” on airports, while arguing that “too many tough decisions on transport have been delayed or deferred.” Let us hope that this was not simply empty rhetoric but rather a clear declaration of intent.
One of the other major arguments for expansion at this time when budgets are under greater scrutiny than ever before, is that unlike other investment in strategically important transport infrastructure, such as HS2, airport expansion does not require a significant injection of taxpayer funds.
Clearly, the government can take comfort from the fact that political consensus is growing behind the delivery of a plan for increased airport capacity and use this as a counter balance to the strident voices that will undoubtedly oppose any expansion.
Mark Tanzer is chief executive of ABTA (Association of British Travel Agents)