IATA has revised its 2020 traffic forecast for
the Middle East and Africa down sharply and warns that many African airlines
are in “serious financial distress”.
The airline organisation predicts that full-year 2020
passenger numbers in both the Middle East and Africa will reach only 30 per
cent of 2019 levels, down significantly from the 45 per cent that was projected
in July.
It says it expects 2021 passenger numbers in Africa to improve to 70
million but that a full return to 2019 levels is not expected until late 2023.
In the Middle East, passenger numbers will rise from a predicted 60 million
this year to 90 million travellers in 2021; a return to 2019 levels of passengers is not
expected until late 2024.
Muhammad Albakri, IATA’s regional vice president
for Africa and the Middle East said, “The slower than anticipated return to the
skies for travellers is more bad news for the region’s aviation industry. A few
months ago, we thought that a fall in passenger numbers to 45 per cent of 2019
levels was as bad as it could get.
“But the second wave, combined with
continuing travel restrictions and quarantines, will result in passenger numbers
in the region being less than a third of what we had in 2019. This heightens
the urgency for governments to adopt systematic Covid-19 testing to restart
travel and curb the economic devastation that is being caused because people
cannot travel.”
The organisation said: “While domestic travel is
picking up across Africa as countries re-open their borders, international
travel remains heavily constrained as major markets including the EU remain
closed to citizens of African nations. Currently, residents from only two
African countries – Rwanda and Tunisia – are permitted to enter EU borders.”
IATA said that four African airlines had already ceased operations
due to the impact of Covid-19 and two are in voluntary administration, with
many more in serious financial distress.
Albakri said, “Hundreds of thousands of airline
jobs are at risk if there is a systemic failure in African aviation. And this
is not just in aviation but across industries that depend on efficient global
connectivity.
“Much needed financial relief has been pledged, but little has
materialised. The situation is critical. Governments and donor organisations
need to act fast or the challenge will move from supporting an industry in
severe distress to resurrection from bankruptcy.”