The UK’s trade with its key economic partners will suffer a
£99.5 billion hit if international travel does not resume before the end of
2021, according to new research.
The report Air Travel Restrictions in 2021: Country by
Country Analysis, has been published by aviation body Airlines UK and it looks at three different scenarios: one in which international travel reopens in May, another
where it reopens in September and a third where it remains banned for the remainder
of 2021.
The government announced in February that a new global travel taskforce would report on 12 April on the prospect of international travel reopening, with a target date of 17 May for the restart.
The research focuses on the UK’s trade relationships with
the EU, the USA, the members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific
Partnership (CPTPP), which includes Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, New Zealand,
Australia, Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and Japan, and which has been
the subject of recent discussions around post-Brexit trade deals, and a number
of other emerging market economies, including India, China, Brazil and South
Africa.
The research, carried out by York Aviation, found that if
travel remained closed until the end of 2021 – the worst case scenario considered
in the report – exports to the countries examined in the research would
decrease by £44.7 billion and imports by £54.8 billion. In addition UK GDP related
to those countries would decrease by £47.6 billion, including tourism-related GDP
losses of £5.3 billion.
If international travel resumes in September, rather than
May, UK exports would take a £55.7 billion hit, made up of £25.1 billion in
exports and £30.6 billion in imports; UK GDP in that scenario would fall by
£26.2 billion.
The report says, “Air travel is not just about holidays. A
significant proportion of passengers travel for business and air transport also
plays a central role in moving cargo around the world. The UK’s ability to develop
export markets, to source materials and expertise from overseas, to attract
foreign direct investment, and to bring international visitors to the country
is dependent on air travel. The longer that the re-opening of international
travel is delayed, the greater the economic cost will be to the UK’s economy.”
Tim Alderslade, Airlines UK’s chief executive, said: “This new report
demonstrates just how vital the UK’s air links are to our economic prosperity,
be it for British exporters, the hospitality sector or companies with an
international footprint. The data refutes the claim that keeping aviation shut
down, or delaying restart beyond the summer, is a price worth paying.”
Sean Doyle, British Airways' CEO, said of the findings: “The
emotional and economic cost of not starting to re-open international travel on 17
May is clear. With more than 50 per cent of the UK adult population vaccinated
in a programme that has been the envy of the world the government must now
urgently provide a phased, risk-based framework for travel to re-start this
summer that will save the economy and jobs, allow business to re-start and
reunite friends and families.”