When Jacques Barrot, the EC's Transport Commissioner, steps onto his plane for Washington early next week to re-open the Open Skies talks, he is likely also to be taking on board the views of his fellow Frenchman Jean-Cyril Spinetta.
The influential chairman and ceo of Europe's Air France KLM, Europe's largest airline, wants to see less emphasis on “tricky issues of no interest such as cabotage” which bedevilled previous talks and instead a quick “first phase” deal.
He is likely to get his first wish. Mr Barrot has made it clear that cabotage - here the right of foreign airlines to fly domestic routes in the USA - is not a “major priority.”
But Mr Spinetta's other wish is likely to be dashed for it seems Mr Barrot has a far more ambitious agenda. Analysts believe that Mr Barrot might well try and persuade the Americans to allow new airlines to be set up, registered in the USA and subject to their regulations but owned by Europeans.
Mr Christoph Klenner, a transport consultant with Prisma Consulting Group in Brussels said: “He is going to Washington with a number of people from the Commission but without interference from any member states. He wants to go it alone on this.
“What he wants to do is establish the right of for EU airlines to establish subsidiaries in the US with US-registered aircraft, US and subject to US but fully owned by the EU airlines.
“What Mr Barrot has realised is that the US and its Congress is not going to go any further on its offer of 49% foreign ownership. It is not sensible, not realistic to think that BA can take control of American Airlines with a 1005 stake.
“This type of ownership also does not give the Europeans any advantage in the long turn.
“But to get fully European owned airlines operating in the States, he would have to go through Congress and the question is whether Congress would ever concede this. The US wants additional services and airlines and they might not mind if these have to be form EU airlines.
“There just could be a Congress majority. It's a long shot but that is the rumour here in Brussels.”
Andrew Solum, director of London-based Travel Industry Associates, said the US had signed an Open Skies agreement with India which was reaping benefits and this might persuade the Americans into a new deal with the EU.
But he said the US was still “very protectionist” about its domestic market and did not see the corresponding right to fly from say London to Frankfurt as much of a perk.
“Australia was very protectionist and not many people travelled there by air until Virgin Blue shook up the market.
“In the US, you have a very mature airline market almost like a 21st century bus service. I don't see how any one could shake up the US market in the way that it happened in Australia.
“It already has a wide choice of services and airlines even amongst the value airline (no frills operators).
“But I think Open Skies is something that does need to happen. Increased competition, particularly in the UK where people already pay some of the highest fares in the world. Open Skies would make it a much more level playing field.”
But will it happen. Mike Platt, managing director of BTI UK, rightly put his finger on the problem. “It's all down to politics at the end of the day.
“I don't think the US will be keen to have EU airlines flying domestic route. I'd like to be optimistic but I am not holding my breath.”