A direct high-speed train service from London to Cologne could capture 30% of the market, a senior Deutsche Bahn (DB) executive said today (March 22).
Dr Andreas Hamprecht, head of international business for DB, said the journey would take about four hours and trips which took a similar time on the continent had already won a big share of the market.
He confirmed that DB was interested in starting a direct London-Cologne service if the right rolling stock to pass through the Channel Tunnel was available.
But he said the next big advance in a high-speed network was likely to be between Germany and the Netherlands on routes like Amsterdam to Dortmund and Frankfurt.
Dr Hamprecht was speaking at a conference on Transport Priorities for the UK in London, organised by the Waterfront Conference Company.
He told delegates that building a high-speed rail network across Europe was a "real challenge" but he expected a good service would exist by 2020.
He said high-speed trains made significant cuts in journey times, citing the Berlin-Frankfurt route that saw a drop from seven hours 40 minutes to three hours 35 minutes.
Rail journeys under two and a half hours were now capturing up to 90% of the market, while even on longer ones, aviation's share was "decreasing quite fast".
Dr Hamprecht said the number of rail passengers between Frankfurt and Paris had doubled since the high-speed line had opened.
He said plans for a British high-speed network, announced earlier this month by the UK government, would increase the scope of a European network.
He said direct services from Manchester and Birmingham to Paris would take just four and three hours respectively.
Julie Mills, director of Greengauge 21, a research company on high-speed rail, said a network in Britain would bring major benefits to the UK economy.
She said it was essential to include London Heathrow Airport in any plans as this would also directly connect the North West with the South, including cities like Manchester and Southampton.
Ms Mills also said: "The link would not just be for the air market but it would be a network which also happened to connect to Heathrow.
She said a British high speed network would both free up existing lines so that local services could be improved and also persuade travellers to switch to rail, cutting air passengers at Heathrow by 10%.
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