Advance purchase policies can help ensure that direct flights are an economical option compared with flights with connections, according to analysis by Thrust Carbon.
For its analysis, published on Thursday (20 August) Thrust Carbon looked at 401 routes on Google Flights – about half on busy city pairs with up to 86 flight options daily and about half on "quieter" routes with only about three flight options per day – to compare flight options both five weeks and one week out.
On the busy routes, the direct flight was the cheapest option 71 per cent of the time five weeks in advance but only 50 per cent of the time one week in advance, according to the report.
Flying from Denver to San Francisco, for example, cost £58 direct versus £79 with a connection five weeks out, but for flights one week out, that flipped to £154 direct versus £130 with a connection.
On the quieter routes, the direct flight was the cheapest option about three-quarters of the time regardless of whether the purchase was one or five weeks in advance, but the gap narrowed closer in, according to Thrust Carbon. Five weeks out, the typical savings of a direct flight versus a connection was 14 per cent, but that dropped to 8 per cent one week out.
Conversely, flights with connections were the cheapest options on long-haul, quieter routes 77 per cent of the time five weeks out and 86 per cent of the time one week out, the report said.
The price differential between connections and direct flights grew from a median 16 per cent five weeks out to 26 per cent one week out. Flights from Istanbul to New York, for example, were £336 cheaper via Amsterdam than direct five weeks out, and that difference grew to £531 one week out.
As such, companies that let travellers book direct even when it comes at a reasonable premium over a flight with connections benefit from advance booking compliance.
Overall, the data shows that companies that position advance purchase policy compliance as providing better odds to getting direct flights rather than focusing on savings might be more convincing to their travellers, according to Thrust Carbon.
"We keep telling travellers to book early because it saves the company money, but that's not really why it matters," Thrust Carbon CEO Kit Aspen said in a statement.
"Book early and you keep the nonstop flight. Book late, and you'll be having a layover. If you want to change traveler behaviour, you need to give them a real benefit."
Thrust Carbon conducted the searches for departures on 14 August and 11 September for the one-week versus five-week differential. As such, the company noted that the data did not test for seasonality.