Optimism about the trajectory of business travel this year has dropped “sharply” since the outbreak of the Iran war in late February, with pessimism particularly high in Europe, according to the latest global poll by the GBTA (Global Business Travel Association).
The GBTA survey of more than 500 travel buyers and suppliers found that while corporate travel was continuing at a “steady pace” in 2026, there was “significantly” more caution, lower confidence levels and higher operational complexity than in the association’s previous poll in January.
Buyer optimism globally fell from 59 per cent in January to 39 per cent in April, with a similar drop for suppliers whose optimism reduced to 45 per cent in April, compared with 57 per cent in January.
GBTA noted that Europe was the only region where pessimism outweighed optimism in the outlook for the year ahead. In January, 58 per cent of European respondents were optimistic about 2026, with only 14 per cent being pessimistic. But in April, this position reversed with only 21 per cent of European respondents being optimistic and 38 per cent now taking a pessimistic view.
Europeans are particularly worried about geopolitical instability and conflict, with 92 per cent seeing it as the primary risk to corporate travel this year. This was ahead of a global average of 79 per cent and a figure of 72 per cent among North America-based respondents.
Around three-quarters of buyers globally (76 per cent) said that geopolitical conflicts were having either a “moderate” or “significant” impact on their organisation’s business travel and meetings decisions. This figure was even higher for suppliers at 83 per cent.
The most common consequences have been route and itinerary changes (50 per cent of respondents), suspension of travel to affected regions (50 per cent), and re-evaluation of duty-of-care policies (36 per cent).
Other widespread concerns to increase since the start of the Iran conflict include the affordability of business travel, which rose from 70 per cent of respondents in January to 82 per cent in April, while employee safety has risen from 56 per cent to 67 per cent over the same period.
“What we’re seeing is not a broad pullback from business travel, but a more deliberate and carefully managed approach to it. Organisations continue to travel and meet – and innovate – but they’re doing so while adapting to rising costs, operational friction and escalating geopolitical tensions,” said Suzanne Neufang, CEO of GBTA.
“These pressures are reshaping how, where and why companies are travelling now – making experienced business travel professionals more critical than ever to keeping travellers safe, navigating risk and disruption, and controlling budgets so organisations and people can continue to connect and do business.”
Expectations on volumes and spending
Just over one quarter of buyers (28 per cent) globally now expect their travel volumes to fall in 2026, compared with last year — this figure was only 16 per cent in January. While just 30 per cent are anticipating a rise in business trips this year, down from 35 per cent in early 2026; another 41 per cent expect volumes to remain flat year-on-year.
Expectations on the level of spending on travel this year remain largely unchanged from January, with 43 per cent of buyers anticipating a year-on-year rise in 2026 — reflecting the higher costs of business travel since the start of the Iran war. Although nearly a quarter of buyers (22 per cent) still expect their spending to decline this year — this figure was just 13 per cent in January.
The impact of geopolitical conflicts are also being felt in the meetings and events sector, with 38 per cent of buyers saying they are less likely to hold international meetings in the US than they were six months ago.
More than half of buyers (56 per cent) said their organisations have changed their meetings or events strategy in the past three months, including making some events virtual (26 per cent), cancellation (24 per cent), reducing employee attendance (24 per cent) and relocating meetings (22 per cent).
European buyers are more likely to shift meetings and events to a virtual format, with 33 per cent using this policy, which compares to just 21 per cent of respondents in North America. But some categories of M&E, such as sales and client meetings, and conferences and trade shows have been among the most difficult to move online.
GBTA’s survey also shows how the current geopolitical crisis has emphasised the importance of travel management during periods of high disruption, with 70 per cent of respondents saying this was the case in their organisations.
Meanwhile, artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming one of the key tools to help travel departments operate more strategically: 41 per cent of buyers say their companies now proactively use the technology and another 28 per cent benefit from AI being embedded in their existing travel tools. For more about how AI is reshaping corporate travel, read BTN's 2026 AI in Business Travel Research & Report.