“Agile” – that’s how Nordic business travel association leaders from Sweden, Denmark and Finland described the state of the industry as they gathered in Gothenburg this month for the annual Nordic Business Travel Summit.
The meeting converged against a backdrop of conflict in Iran, widespread airspace closures throughout the Middle East and Russia, and ongoing tensions with the United States – lest we forget US president Donald Trump’s ambitions to takeover Greenland. Much of the conversation, therefore, centred on the link between connectivity and competitiveness.
From a business perspective, the Nordics punch far above their weight, boasting global exports like Spotify, Nokia, Klarna, H&M, Ikea and Lego, as well as a surprisingly high number of startups and “unicorns” per capita. And most of these businesses – whether big or small – rely on regional and international travel to remain competitive.
“Companies in the Nordics have to travel to make money – that’s what keeps the Nordics alive,” says Jens Sondergaard, general manager at the Danish Business Travel Association (DBTA). “Volumes go up and down and there may be adjustments according to different industries, different travel patterns and different needs, but corporates have to travel.” That includes travel to the US – despite corporate sentiment being “more cautious than before”.
Stricter entry requirements at US borders, including proposed changes to the Electronic System for Travel Authorisation (ESTA) – which would require inbound travellers to submit five years of social media identifiers – are generating concern.
So much so that Sondergaard reports corporate members of DBTA are now seeking guidance on how to address worries from travellers who are hesitant or, in some cases, outright refusing to travel to the States.
“There is now a greater sensitivity towards your employees when it comes to business travel,” agrees Fredrick Hermelin, general manager at the Swedish Business Travel Association.
“In Sweden, it seems travel is moving towards HR instead of procurement… Procurement is there to do the transaction, but all the values around the programme fall under HR…. Integrity is very strong in the Nordics. So, when we don't like what's happening in the US, for example, it has an immediate effect on both business and people.”
International business travel out of Sweden remains strong, Hermelin says. Although traffic to the US “has dropped” and travel to the Middle East has come to an abrupt halt following the outbreak of war in Iran and the surrounding Gulf region. Prior to the conflict, Gulf carriers such as Emirates and Qatar Airways had been ramping up connections to hubs in Stockholm, Copenhagen and Helsinki – helping connect Nordic businesses to key export markets across Asia.
“It seems like there’s been hit, after hit, after hit,” says Sari Viljamaa, executive director of the Finnish Business Travel Association, referring to the Middle East conflict and ongoing war in Ukraine.
“There are a lot of [Finnish] companies for whom long-haul markets like China and Japan are important,” Viljamaa explains. Travel to these markets is still feasible, of course, but with longer travel times and multiple stop-overs.
The Finnish business travel market, in particular, has been hit by the Ukraine war and the resulting sanctions against its neighbour Russia.
Along with the closure of Russian airspace, rail connections between the two countries have also been affected. “[Prior to the war] we had a very good rail connection between Helsinki and St. Petersburg – high-speed train. Three hours. Fantastic. Now, that [service] is not running anymore. And we don't go to Russia. The border is totally closed,” she says.
The country’s flag carrier Finnair in recent years has been steadily bolstering its long-haul capacity to Asia and the US, while its ever-expanding European network will include connections to 93 destinations this summer, including 12 new routes to cities in Italy, Spain, Estonia, Albania and Luxemburg as well as to Stavanger in Norway and Umeå in Sweden.
Sweden’s domestic travel dilemma
Scandinavian carrier SAS has also rapidly expanded its long-haul network after exiting Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2024 and joining the SkyTeam Alliance.
While most of the carrier’s long-haul flights now connect via Copenhagen, flight connectivity within Sweden has dropped sharply since 2019, especially for domestic routes. SAS executive vice president and chief commercial officer Paul Verhagen attributes this decline to reduced corporate travel demand.
Defending the carrier’s shift towards Copenhagen (and away from its secondary hub at Stockholm’s Arlanda airport), Verhagen said: “We are investing heavily in Nordic – not Danish – connectivity. Yes, it's true, that for geographical reasons we are investing more of our intercontinental connectivity – not for Denmark, for the Nordics – out of Copenhagen. But, percentage wise, we have actually invested more in Sweden than we have in Denmark, in terms of connections. People tend to forget that we took over BRA [Braathens Regional Airlines], which is now flying on our behalf.
“However, we will only be able to fly if demand follows… [Sweden] is still 30 per cent below pre-Covid [demand] levels. Whereas the rest of Europe is actually at or above those levels. And to a large extent, that is actually due to the travel policies of corporates,” he said during a panel discussion at the NBTS.
“If those travel policies tell you that you cannot travel by air, if, for example, the journey is shorter than five hours or 500 kilometres, then [demand will drop] and we will move our assets somewhere else. If the demand is not there, then we fly somewhere else,” he said.
“We have stopped travelling domestically,” SBTA’s Hermelin confirms. “We're replacing all the domestic travel with digital technology… [because] travel policies say you have to evaluate every flight for purpose, and you have a carbon budget on your team”. Carbon reduction – rather than cost savings – is the driving factor here, with Hermelin adding, “we still have flight shaming in Sweden, very much”.
And alternative aviation fuels – also known as ‘sustainable’ aviation fuels (SAF) – aren’t a viable option. Verhagen said just 1 per cent of SAS’s corporate customers are currently purchasing SAF.
Business-critical international air travel remains stable, but Hermelin notes domestic travel "is dead" due to the absence of adequate infrastructure for greener options like rail.
“Half of Sweden is disconnected, which is a huge problem, and there is no rail connectivity because it's not been built properly,” Hermelin explains, referring to the country’s north, where critical forestry, mining and tourism industries are located.
“It’s going to take 30 years to get a proper rail connection that can be used for business travel,” he says. And where the infrastructure is available, access to rail content within corporate travel workflows is an ongoing challenge. The SBTA is in ongoing talks with Swedish rail operator SJ to advocate for change.
Industry consolidation raises questions
Beyond geopolitical and connectivity factors, significant industry consolidation – specifically the landscape-shifting merger between American Express Global Business Travel and CWT – has prompted corporate travel buyers in the region to reassess their programme strategies.
“There is a clear sense of concern in the market regarding the diminishing number of TMC alternatives,” says Lotten Fowler, vice president, Nordics at Areka Consulting. “This, in turn, raises questions about if and how the new entrants can measure up.”
Some of these ‘new entrants’ include Navan and Spotnana, Fowler says. Local players like Denmark-based travel management platform Goodwings and Norwegian TMC Berg Hansen are also gaining traction, with the latter (a former CWT partner) looking to expand to Sweden, Denmark and Finland by year’s end.
“Consolidation has affected each of the Nordic countries slightly differently,” explains Fowler. “I’ve heard that Amex GBT has a market share of around 80 per cent in Finland following the acquisition of CWT. Denmark and Norway have more TMC options than Finland, but less than Sweden.”
She adds: “It’s fairly easy to service companies in Denmark and Norway out of Sweden, but Finnish is a completely different language, so you need Finnish-speaking sales to successfully establish yourself in the market… Amex GBT had in the past decade bought the players who were strong in Finland, which means consolidation is affecting the Finnish market the most.”
Business travel association leaders in Sweden, Denmark, and Finland have observed an increase in RFP activity and a trend toward innovative, tech-forward providers.
According to SBTA’s Hermelin, “there’s more talk than action” among large corporates in Sweden, since alternatives for managing a global programme are limited.
DBTA’s Sondergaard says corporates are ready to explore new opportunities.
“Travel managers are tired of having to wait for years to get answers to their queries – like, ‘when will we have NDC fares with SAS?’ – they just want straight answers, and they haven’t had this from some of the big TMCs,” he says. “I think it's just a matter of readiness to do something else.”