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Global

No-Deal Brexit Could Cap Number of U.K.-EU Flights at 2018 Levels

By Dawit Habtemariam / 17 January 2019 / Contact Reporter
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If the U.K. does not ratify a withdrawal agreement from the European Union by March 29, the date for which Brexit is scheduled, air travel is among the things that will get hairy. The possibility became much more likely on Tuesday, when the U.K. parliament overwhelmingly voted against the withdrawal agreement U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May had negotiated with the EU.

According to the International Air Transport, the EU Commission on Dec. 19 had put forth a proposal that would ensure "basic connectivity" in the case of a "no-deal" Brexit. U.K. carriers would be able to fly over and make technical stops, such as for refueling, in EU member states and would be able to serve direct routes to EU states. Under the proposal, the number of flights operated by U.K. carriers to and from each EU state cannot exceed the number of flights touching that country during "respectively the IATA winter and summer seasons of the year of 2018."

The proposal does not distinguish between passenger and cargo flights and does not define how the cap would be implemented. "There is legal and commercial uncertainty over how the commission's plan to cap flight numbers will work," said IATA director general and CEO Alexandre de Juniac. However, IATA said the cap may stunt important economic opportunities and may lead to higher prices for consumers. IATA estimates that, to meet consumer demand, 5 million extra seats are scheduled between the U.K and EU for 2019 compared with 2018. Many of these seats will be in the peak summer season, putting them at risk of being disrupted if a no-deal Brexit occurs. "That current flight levels will be protected even with a hard Brexit is an important assurance, but with two months left until Britain leaves the EU, airlines still do not know exactly what kind of Brexit they should be planning for," said de Juniac.

The EU Commission's proposal, meanwhile, is contingent on reciprocity for EU carriers flying to and from the U.K. When the EU Commission released its proposal in December, the U.K. Department for Transport welcomed it, said it would study the plan in detail and reiterated a previous notice that it would permit EU airlines to fly to the U.K. The Department for Transport has not commented since.

RELATED: What Brexit No-Deal Would Mean for Travel Between U.K. & EU

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