The world's financial press is dominated by features telling us why a global recession is looming. Whether you want to dismiss expert observations as 'project fear' or take note, the truth is that no one knows the future but many make informed guesses based on evidence.
One person who has applied market evidence to look at their own business's future is Lufthansa's CEO.
Carsten Spohr told a press conference last week that "If there is one positive aspect to the flattening of the global economy, and certainly also the worsening figures for all airlines -- unfortunately also for us -- it is that the consolidation process will tend to accelerate.
"The sector is evolving towards a dozen companies operating worldwide," he said.
Spohr believes that smaller national and regional airlines will survive and complement a sharply reduced number of operators on major long-haul routes. He did not identify any of his candidates by name but forecast that there would be "three in the United States, three in China, three in the Gulf and three in Europe".
Of course if one were to list today's major long-haul network carriers — "operating worldwide" suggests 'network' rather than point-to-point operators — it is likely that most would automatically come up with the same list of three prominent, network carriers in each of the US, Europe, Gulf and, err, Asia.
However, Spohr said "China", not "Asia" so one surmises that he was not thinking of Cathay, Singapore or Qantas but of either existing or yet-to-be-created Chinese airlines.
Senior figures in the airline industry, including LH's Spohr, are always quick to remind market observers that the airline industry is global, cyclical and elastic, ie very responsive to economic conditions.
One has only to take a casual interest in news to be aware that there are international trade tensions, most notably between what many consider to be the future global superpowers, namely the United States and China. Europe is possibly splintering and the Gulf may be wealthy but it is missing the broad economic foundations and political unity of the two superpowers.
Spohr's comments suggest that as China becomes the world's super economy with which other countries will want to trade, it will also become home to the long-haul global network carriers necessary for such a sharp increase in global business.
According to the GBTA, China is already the world's biggest business travel market when measured by spend. Spohr's choice of the word "China" rather than "Asia" looks very deliberate indeed.
Procurement teams may very well have to review their air sourcing.