Air passenger demand declined by 2.2 per cent year-on-year in May, as measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which cited the war in Iran as a key factor for a third consecutive monthly drop.
The figures show that RPK for the Middle East fell by 28.4 per cent in May compared with the same month in 2025. This follows a 46.6 per cent drop for the region in April.
Even when excluding the Middle East from the figures, global demand increased by just 0.7 per cent year-on-year during May.
Capacity for May was also down by 2.3 per cent year-on-year, as measured in available seat kilometres (ASK). But load factor was up 0.1 percentage points compared with May 2025 to 83.5 per cent, which was a record high for May, according to IATA.
International demand in May fell by 1.6 per cent year-on-year but was up by 3.1 per cent when excluding the Middle East. International capacity declined 2.4 per cent for the period, while load factor was 83.7 per cent, a 0.7 percentage-point increase.
Meanwhile, May’s global domestic demand also declined by 3.1 per cent year-on-year, with capacity down 2.1 per cent. Domestic load factor stood at 83 per cent, a drop of 0.8 points compared with May 2025.
“May demand still appeared to be largely resilient in the face of high fuel prices and airfares,” said IATA’s director general Willie Walsh in a statement. “While the recent sharp drop in oil prices is an encouraging development, the challenges created by the war will likely persist for some time.
“Oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain and it is likely to take time before the benefit of lower oil prices is reflected in ‘normalised’ jet fuel pricing.”
Europe bucked the overall downward trend in May, with demand up by 2.7 per cent year-on-year as capacity rose by 1.8 per cent. Load factor for the region also jumped by 0.8 points to 85.9 per cent — the highest level of any region.
IATA noted that European airlines had benefited from a 15 per cent year-on-year rise in direct traffic to Asia in May, which reflected a “continued shift to direct services between the two regions” since the start of the Iran war.
Asia-Pacific and North America both posted declines in demand for May. The former was down 1.4 per cent year-on-year, with the latter down by 0.8 per cent. Africa reported the highest growth rate at 6.6 per cent compared with May 2025.
IATA added that global forward ticket sales in May also dropped by 7.4 per cent year-on-year, led by the drop in forward international demand, which was down 10.2 per cent. Domestic ticket sales "remained resilient" globally, increasing by 6 per cent year-on-year.