Business Travel iQ's weekly Analysis is dedicated to interpreting a news story and considering the possible implications for business travel buyers.
The biggest story this week is Britain's possible exit from the European Union, the so-called Brexit.
Brits go to the polls today to decide whether or not they will remain members of the EU. No one knows for sure what the future will bring either if Britain remains or if it leaves but it's worth pointing out some effects that the vote might have on a travel manager's life.
1. Travel budgets — The medium and long-term effects of a vote to leave for Britain are unknown. However in the short term politicians will need to work out the details of how to extricate the country from membership of an organisation whose regulations permeate many aspects of business life. That is bound to cause uncertainty. Uncertainty traditionally affects business confidence and slows investment so both the British stock market and sterling are likely to fall in value. In the short term this is likely to mean higher air fares and hotel room rates from European suppliers for UK business travellers which travel managers would have to address to control costs.
2. Visas — It is important to note that travel from one European country to another is currently seamless for those with European passports. That could potentially change and visas be required for entry into the UK or, vice versa, for UK citizens wanting to travel to other European countries. Visas involve more work and time and, possibly, money. However, it is entirely possible there will be no change in the visa requirements.
3. Open Skies — EU agreements with other governments form the foundations for "open skies", the guidelines by which airlines plan routes and frequencies. Open Skies has enabled a massive growth in the number of flights between Europe and the States. How the absence of this agreement would affect transatlantic traffic is unknown.
EU regulations also allow airlines of one member of the EU to have operational bases in other European countries. For this to continue, British airlines such as easyJet which have used this to transform themselves into short-haul European carriers would probably have to create subsidiary companies in the affected European countries.
4. Security — If Britain is no longer a member of Europe, it would no longer have access to Europol, the EU's law enforcement agency which member states use to share intelligence. Recent terrorist incidents in Paris and Brussels, which involved perpetrators crossing European borders, have demonstrated the value of access to personal profiles.
5. Mobile communications — Europe's abolition of roaming charges has made mobile costs uniform in every member country. Lower, uniform mobile rates would no longer be automatic so although WiFi access fees would not be affected, the cost of mobile usage might rise for UK residents.
6. Employment — Travel suppliers in Europe depend on flexible supplies of labour and the ability of their employees to move between different locations. A free flow of labour between Britain and other European countries is likely to end.
Of course, no one knows what would be negotiated in the case of a Brexit vote but everyone knows that the decision, whatever that might be, will affect business travel.