Long-haul business fares from the UK are set to fall by 3% in 2017, according to new research from American Express Global Business Travel. Short-haul business fares will fall by 2%, the forecast says.
The Global Business Travel Forecast 2017 says the continued slowdown of the Chinese economy and depressed oil prices, the United Kingdom's impending departure from the European Union, growing populist politics and increased security concerns in many countries have together created a higher level of uncertainty in the global marketplace
Our chart this week shows the company's predictions for the year ahead in certain key EMEA markets.
EMEA airfare and hotel rate forecast
The company says, "In Europe, airlines continue to face significant headwinds in the form of lacklustre economic performance, security concerns, long-haul pressure from Gulf carriers and the growing presence of low-cost carriers on short-haul routes. With low-cost carriers looking to continue their aggressive expansion efforts in 2017, airfares will stay level with 2016.
"In the UK, the currency devaluation following Britain's decision to leave the European Union (referred to as Brexit) has had the short-term effect of making outbound travel from the UK more expensive. However, the medium to long term impact of Brexit on business travel will not be known until the UK government starts negotiations with the EU, which are expected to begin in Q2."
It added, "Political and economic uncertainties in Europe are flattening hotel demand but the overall lack of new supply should help sustain mild rate increases. Despite speculation that the UK would see prices rise on higher demand from value-seeking tourists and domestic vacationers forced to stay at home, rates are staying level and should remain so through 2017.
"In European countries where demand growth is strong, such as in Ireland or Russia, price increases should be similarly robust. By contrast, the strong demand experienced in Dubai and Abu Dhabi should result in only minimal price increases given the significant amount of new construction in those cities."