Airlines are expected to return to profit sooner than thought, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), but European carriers are still lagging a long way behind.
In a stark turnaround, IATA has changed its forecast for airline performance in 2010 from a global loss of $2.8 billion to a profit of $2.5 billion. If delivered, it will be the industry's first profit since 2007.
Giovanni Bisignani, IATA's CEO, said: "The global economy is recovering from the depths of the financial crisis much more quickly than could have been anticipated.
"We thought it would take at least three years to recover the $81 billion (14.3%) drop in revenues in 2009. But the %62 billion top line improvement this year puts us about 75% on the way to pre-crisis levels."
Airlines in Asia are predicted to perform the best this year, predicted IATA, with a profit of $2.2 billion. North American carriers are also expected to post a profit, of $1.9 billion, a major turnaround on the $2.7 billion lost in 2009.
The Latin American aviation industry is expected to show a profit of $900 million, and to be only region to deliver a profit two years in a row, after making $500 million profit in 2009.
Middle Eastern airlines are predicted to post their first profit, $100 million, since 2005. Last year they lost $600 million. Airlines in Africa are also seeing improvements, and are predicted to show their first profit, $100 million, since 2002.
Europe is expected to be the only region whose airlines won't make a profit. IATA predicted European carriers will lose $2.8 billion this year.
The figure is an improvement on the $4.3 billion the region lost in 2009, but the "worsening conditions in Europe are in sharp contract to improvements in all other regions," said Bisignani.
"A stagnating economy, strikes, natural disasters and a currency crisis have left European carriers struggling with an anticipated $2.8 billion loss."
Bisignani warned that despite the dramatically improved outlook for global aviation, the industry remains fragile and a long way from sustainable profitability.
"The challenge to build a healthy industry requires an even greater alignment of governments, labour and industry partners. They must all understand that this industry needs to continue to reduce costs, gain efficiencies and be able to restructure itself if it is to be sustainably profitable. We must all be prepared for a greater change," he said.
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