Airlines association IATA expects air traffic to exceed 2019 levels in 2024 in its latest forecast of the sector’s post-pandemic recovery.
IATA said that it was forecasting global passenger numbers to reach 83 per cent of 2019 levels in 2022, up from just 47 per cent in 2021.
Passenger traffic is then predicted to reach 94 per cent of pre-Covid numbers in 2023 before exceeding 2019’s total in 2024 with an estimated four billion people taking flights in that year.
IATA insisted that the spread of the Omicron variant did not change the “trajectory for the recovery in passenger numbers”. Although the research does not take into account any potential impact from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the airspace bans implemented by the EU and UK, among others, on Russian carriers.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, said: “People want to travel and when travel restrictions are lifted, they return to the skies. There is still a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic.”
The association said air travel within Europe will benefit in the next few years from “passenger preferences for short-haul travel as confidence rebuilds”, and Covid restrictions are lifted.
IATA predicts that the continent’s traffic will reach 86 per cent of 2019 levels this year before recovering fully in 2024, when it is forecast to exceed pre-Covid numbers.
The forecast does not calculate the impact from the Russia-Ukraine conflict but IATA added “air transport is resilient against shocks and this conflict is unlikely to impact the long-term growth of air transport.”.
“It is too early to estimate what the near-term consequences will be for aviation, but it is clear that there are downside risks, in particular in markets with exposure to the conflict,” said IATA. “These impacts would be felt most severely in Russia, Ukraine and neighbouring areas.”
The European Union and the UK have both moved to ban Russian airlines and aircraft from their airspace due to the conflict.
Before Covid, Russia was the world’s 11th largest market for air travel, including its large domestic sector, while Ukraine ranked 48th among all countries.
“The impact on airline costs as a result of fluctuations in energy prices or re-routing to avoid Russian airspace could have broader implications,” added IATA. “Consumer confidence and economic activity are likely to be impacted, even outside of eastern Europe.”