Geopolitical events in the Middle East restrained March global air demand, according to the latest report from the International Air Transport Association.
March total demand, as measured in revenue passenger kilometres, increased 2.1 per cent year over year. However, outside of the Middle East, demand increased 8 per cent for the period, according to IATA.
Capacity, as measured in available seat kilometres, declined 1.7 per cent compared with March 2025, while load factor increased 3.1 percentage points to 83.6 per cent.
International demand in March fell 0.6 per cent year over year, led by the 60.8 per cent decline in traffic by carriers in the Middle East, according to IATA. Capacity declined 6.2 per cent compared with March 2025. International load factor increased 4.7 percentage points to 84.1 per cent.
March domestic demand increased 6.5 per cent year over year, while capacity increased 5.6 per cent for the period. Load factor was up 0.7 percentage points to 83 per cent.
"Everybody's watching what's happening with jet fuel – both supply and pricing," IATA director general Willie Walsh said in a statement.
"On the supply side, over the next months we could see shortages in parts of the world with high dependence on supplies from the Gulf, especially in Asia and Europe. And the extraordinarily high cost of jet fuel is increasingly being reflected in ticket prices. While this has not impacted March traffic or forward bookings to date, it remains to be seen at what point high prices could start to shift passenger behaviour."
Outside of the Middle East, March international traffic by region showed double-digit year-over-year increases for Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia Pacific. Europe traffic was up 7.7 per cent for the period, while North America traffic reported a gain of 3.7 per cent.
International capacity increases for March were more muted, with Latin America and the Caribbean posting the largest growth at 8.4 per cent year over year, followed by Africa at 4.2 per cent.
March domestic demand by country was led by China, with a 13.7 per cent increase year over year. Brazil reported a 10.8 per cent gain. India is the only country in IATA's report to post a demand decline for the period, of 1 per cent.
On the capacity front, China was up 13.1 per cent year over year, but India and Japan reported declines, of 0.2 per cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively. US capacity in March was flat.