January total air demand, as measured in revenue passenger kilometres, increased 3.8 per cent year over year, which represents slower growth than the 5.6 per cent reported in December, according to the latest report from the International Air Transport Association.
International demand growth lifted the total rate for the month. January international demand increased 5.9 per cent compared with January 2025, while total domestic demand rose just 0.1 per cent for the period.
The same pattern played out with capacity – higher international capacity offset a decline in domestic capacity.
Total January capacity, as measured in available seat kilometres, increased 3.5 per cent year over year, with international capacity up 5.8 per cent and domestic capacity down 0.4 per cent compared with January 2025.
IATA noted that total January load factor increased 0.2 percentage points compared with January 2025 to 82 per cent, a record high for the month. International load factor was up 0.1 percentage points to 82.5 per cent, while domestic load factor climbed 0.4 percentage points to 81.2 per cent for the period.
"Both international and domestic segments also saw their highest January PLF on record," according to IATA.
January demand was affected by the shift in the Lunar New Year from January in 2025 to February in 2026.
"The timing of the Lunar New Year partly explains the slightly slower 3.8 per cent expansion in January, but the fundamentals are in place for demand to continue strong growth in 2026," IATA director general Willie Walsh said in a statement. "Events over the weekend have, however, introduced some uncertainty into the evolution of traffic and fuel costs."
IATA January traffic
January total demand and capacity increased for each region in the IATA report, with Africa having the highest growth rates for each at 17.9 per cent and 16.3 per cent year over year, respectively.
North America reported the slowest growth rate for demand (0.8 per cent) and capacity (0.1 per cent). Europe reported January total traffic growth of 6 per cent compared with January 2025 and a capacity increase of 5.1 per cent.
International demand and capacity for January also grew for each region year over year, with Africa again leading the way with a demand increase of 11.7 per cent versus January 2025 and a capacity increase of 10.1 per cent.
North America had the slowest international traffic growth rate at 3.4 per cent and slowest capacity growth at 2.6 per cent.
Europe's international demand rate for January was up 6.3 per cent year over year, while capacity increased 5.7 per cent.
On the January domestic front, it was a mixed bag. Three of the countries in the report saw year-over-year traffic increases, with the remaining three reporting declines.
Africa reported the largest demand increase at 10.9 per cent year over year. China had the largest demand decline at 3.8 per cent for the period, but the shift in the Lunar New Year affected that figure.
China and North America were the only two countries with both negative demand and capacity compared with January 2025.