Boeing is forecasting a $3.2 trillion market for new commercial airplanes over the next two decades, driven by an increasing demand for aeroplanes to replace older, less efficient aircraft.
”We”re facing a very dynamic situation today in the commercial aviation industry,” said Boeing Commercial Airplanes Vice President, Marketing Randy Tinseth.
The current high price of oil is driving up the share of demand for replacement aircraft, from a forecast of 36 per cent last year to 43 per cent this year.
The influence of current market conditions is clearly reflected in Boeing”s annual 20 year forecast. The report calls for a market of 29,400 new commercial aeroplanes (passenger and freighter) by 2027, with a balanced demand in aircraft by region. The forecast takes into account the current slowing worldwide economy, fuel prices, slowing traffic growth in some markets, and action by airlines to balance costs and revenues, but still sees an annual increase of 3.2 per cent per year in world fleet from today”s 19,000 units.
”Over the more than 40 years that Boeing has been forecasting the commercial aviation market, we”ve experienced other challenges with their own dynamics and their own impact on global air travel. What we”ve learned is that our industry, which is based on the need to transport passengers and freight via our global aviation system, is extremely resilient,” Tinseth said.
The new aircraft will be needed to accommodate a forecasted 5 per cent annual increase in global air travel, and a 5.8 per cent annual increase in air cargo traffic. As a result of strong orders in the last three years, the report notes that more than 30 per cent of the forecast is already in backlog.
The report states that over the next 20 years, passenger and cargo airlines will take delivery of:
” Regional Jets: 2,510 units ($80 billion) ” Declining segment as airlines ”up-gauge” to single-aisles due to capacity, economic, environmental constraints
” Single-Aisles: 19,160 units ($1,360B) ” Largest segment by units
” Twin-Aisles: 6,750 units ($1,470B) ” Largest segment by investment
” 747 and larger: 980 units ($290B) ” Small but significant market
Single-aisle aircraft will make up the bulk of the deliveries during the next 20 years. In addition, strong domestic and intra-regional air travel growth in emerging Asia-Pacific markets, along with continued growth of low-cost carriers worldwide is driving demand in this segment.
”We”re seeing an increasing share of airplane deliveries to the Asia-Pacific region, as well as the Middle East, Latin America, and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS),” Tinseth said. ”The result is a much more geographically balanced and more stable long-term market, which is less vulnerable to swings in regional economies or other variations in demand.”
The full report is available at http://www.boeing.com/cmo
Tom Otley