Airline passenger traffic in Europe is not expected to drop this summer unless there are “significant” fuel shortages caused by the ongoing Iran war, according to the latest update from airports’ association ACI Europe.
Passenger traffic in Europe during March increased by 3.8 per cent year-on-year, despite the impact of the Middle East conflict, and was “broadly in line” with February, which saw a 4.2 per cent rise compared with the same month in 2025.
ACI Europe has previously warned that Europe was weeks away from running short of aviation fuel but the association is now striking a more positive note — at least for flights during the peak summer holiday season.
“Looking at the peak summer months ahead of us, we do not — for now — expect a contraction of passenger volumes, unless we end up facing significant jet fuel shortages,” said Olivier Jankovec, ACI Europe’s director general.
“Middle Eastern airlines are now restoring their European network while European ones have only made limited capacity adjustments — reflecting the protection afforded by fuel-cost hedging strategies and the continued resilience of demand.”
But Jankovec added that the traffic outlook was “effectively a black box” after the peak summer travel months of July and August.
“It all hinges on geopolitics and the fallout of the oil crisis — with the prospect of a cost-of-living shock testing demand resilience,” said Jankovec.
ACI Europe noted that Italy and Spain had recorded the largest growth in passengers among Europe’s top aviation markets in March. Italian airports saw traffic rise by 4.8 per cent year-on-year during the month, while Spain’s passenger numbers jumped by 3.9 per cent.
There was more sluggish growth in other major markets during March: Germany recorded a 3.1 per cent year-on-year rise in passengers, traffic in the UK increased by 2.8 per cent and France’s passenger numbers went up by only 1.2 per cent.
The countries to see the largest year-on-year passenger growth in March, included Slovakia (+130 per cent), which was driven by a major expansion of services at Bratislava Airport, Slovenia (+17 per cent), Denmark (+14 per cent), Malta (+12.5 per cent) and Croatia (+11 per cent).
But Cyprus saw passenger numbers slump by 15 per cent year-on-year, which ACI attributed to the “fallout from media coverage” of a drone incident at a British military base during March.
Europe’s two busiest airports — Istanbul and London Heathrow — both saw strong growth in March, with year-on-year rises of 7.7 per cent and 6.9 per cent respectively, as they benefited from increased transfer traffic as passengers were forced to avoid the major Middle Eastern hubs.
Spain’s major airports of Barcelona (+5.4 per cent year-on-year) and Madrid (+4.2 per cent) both saw “dynamic growth” during March. But traffic increases were more modest at Frankfurt and Amsterdam Schiphol airports, where passenger numbers rose by 2.1 per cent and 1.4 per cent respectively.