Last week we reported on the prediction of Dr Dirk Notheis that most of Europe's small and medium-sized legacy carriers would disappear in the next few years.
Dr Notheis, managing director of Morgan Stanley Bank in Germany and an expert on aviation issues, forecast that BA, Lufthansa and Air France/KLM and the low cost carriers (LCCs) would be the likely survivors.
His remarks, made at the autumn conference of the VDR, Germany's association for travel managers, are not new. Such scenarios have been predicted for several years.
The EC has long made it clear that it wants to see consolidation in the European aviation industry.
Economists look at an industry, some of whose governing rules have been in place since the 1940s, in disbelief. Airlines which make heavy losses year after year somehow continue in business. What other industry can say this?
Analysts when asked what is wrong with the industry often reply with one word: 'overcapacity'. Yet new routes and new airlines seem to be starting up almost every other day.
In America, US Airways' unwelcome $8.7bn bid for Delta Air Lines looks set to be rebuffed, the latter refusing even the prospect of a "White Knight" bid and apparently determined to stand alone.
Yet both US Airways and Delta have spent many of the last few years in Chapter 11 protection, that is technically bankrupt.
If such a merger did take place between US and Delta, both among the biggest carriers in the States, it just might shift the log jam and lead to a more rational approach. It would not be wise to bet on it though.
But Europeans can not afford to gloat. There are even fewer signs here of significant consolidation and a large number of lame ducks. Alitalia has been a basket case for years and Olympic Airlines is not much better.
In fact, many of the continent's small and medium-sized legacy airlines are run at a loss. Finnair recently announced a drop of 60% in its profits while this week CSA Czech Airlines seemed very pleased with itself because it loss of CZK324m (€11.6m) for the first nine months of the year was a "better result than was planned for that period."
If such airlines are still not in the black when aviation is generally enjoying a boom, what hope is there that they will ever be.
It was these loss makers for whom Dr Notheis was predicting doom. But somehow they seem to hang on. Even those who do succumb, like Sabena and Swissair, re-appear under different names.
The arcane rules of the aviation industry do play a part in blocking or preventing consolidation. The single market in the EU has allowed considerably more leeway for carriers operating within the continent to take over each other or merge.
But with carriers which operate long haul routes outside the continent, the rules are still a problem to overcome.
But the rules are not the only or perhaps even the biggest obstacle. John Hanlon, director general of the European Low Fares Airline Association (ELFAA) in a good speech at the London forum of ACTE last week, spoke of how some 36 different organisations handle Europe's air traffic management.
Having a "single sky" would save considerable amounts of money and 15% in airlines' fuel bills by cutting out unnecessary flying.
But, said Mr Hanlon, little is done with countries citing sovereignty as one of the reasons for inaction.
It is the same with the airlines. Countries see a flagship carrier as being tied up with national pride.
The president of the Czech Republic does not want to arrive on a state visit to France having scrambled for a seat on Ryanair or Wizz. He wants to arrive in style in his country's carrier.
The logo on the aircraft tail is often more important than the balance sheet.
There are constant rumours that Air France is about to take over Alitalia (they must be mad) or that BA is in talks with Iberia (the UK carrier did raise its stake to 10% in Iberia this week).
But so far little seems to happen. Probably nothing will until an airline's hand is forced, when it can no longer staunch the losses, state subsidies end and reality kicks in.
Dr Notheis is certainly right. Airlines will disappear, either eaten up by the Big Three or by simply going out of business. But the difficulty, when factors other than hard economics are in play, is predicting when.
Many who wish to see an efficient European aviation industry, would say sooner rather than later.
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