The business travel sector should brace itself for another recession, a leading industry economist has warned. Andrew Burnham, head of travel at accountancy firm Macintyre Hudson, said the next quarter would reveal the likely economic landscape for the industry in 2012.
“I feel the dangers of a double-dip recession have increased significantly,” he said. “The private sector has adapted and realigned itself after the 2008 contraction, but what’s worrying is we look like we’re revisiting the banking crisis.
“Political inaction in Europe has led the markets to be frustrated, and the pressure to be put back on the banks.”
Burnham’s comments echo those of French economist Jacques Attali, who also warned business travel executives of a potential downturn. Speaking at the ACTE conference in Paris, he said all the signs were there that a “terrible global depression” was around the corner.
The likely effect on the business travel industry will be further consolidation, suggested Burnham, particularly among smaller travel management companies (TMCs).
Burnham’s comments provoked a mixed response from TMC bosses, which ranged from Egencia’s Jonny Shingles saying he expected to see a single digit rise in business travel in 2012, to ATPI boss Peter Muller saying the uncertainty caused by “doom and gloom” made it hard to budget for next year.