The votes are counted. The results are in. Britain is out.
As the UK begins to contemplate how to extricate itself from the EU, there are already implications for corporate air programmes.
Much of the effect on the demand side is rooted in where the sterling exchange rate settles. Sterling has gone up and down since last Thursday but, as was expected in the eventuality of an out vote, the peaks are still well below the average $1.40+ of the past year.
In a word that means that the price for anything booked in the UK is bound to rise. That means pressure on corporate travel costs.
It is too soon to say but the uncertainty of outcomes could trigger what was seen after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. In times of market slowdowns, companies look to cut costs and many finance directors consider items such as training and business travel non-essential and therefore vulnerable.
This may sound like the travel industry's equivalent of "Project Fear" but there are a couple of outcomes that are virtually certain — and they both have to do with airlines.
The biggest cost, other than labour, for any airline is fuel. The US dollar is oil's standard international currency. Any fall in the sterling exchange rate means higher fuel costs for UK airlines and that could translate into higher fares.
The demand for leisure travel is more elastic than that for business travel. But that does not mean that UK demand for business travel is immune from change, whether that be by looking more favourably on using foreign carriers with potentially lower fares or by downgrading class of travel. Eurostar will look a more competitive option for business travel between London and the Continent although capacity on the rail operator's London-Brussels route is likely to fall.
Supply will be affected in other ways. At present US carriers can fly between the States and EU destinations because of the European Open Skies agreement. This has enabled tremendous growth in frequencies between the UK and US. The negotiation of a US-UK air treaty could take some time so supply could fall. Routes between the US and the Continent are likely to grow as a result.
Moreover, airlines are businesses so don't like flying unprofitable routes. On most transatlantic routes business class passengers subsidise those who fly at the back of the bus. For example, the business class traffic provided by financial services has driven the substantial growth in frequencies on London-New York. If the UK loses its financial passport many banks might move to Dublin, Paris and, most likely, Frankfurt and those destinations will benefit from more capacity.
The EU philosophy of allowing companies to conduct business in a uniform fashion in any member country has enabled easyJet and other carriers such as IAG's Vueling to build big short-haul networks criss-crossing the continent. There will no longer be any legislation to guarantee that easyJet which is immensely profitable be treated the same way in France as Air France, with its less-than-impressive earnings.
There are still a lot of 'what ifs' and it's an evolving situation but the demand and supply for air travel might be volatile in the short term.