China is set to become the world's biggest aviation market in 2025, according to the latest passenger forecasts from IATA. In the same year, the UK will be overtaken by India, currently the seventh largest aviation market in the world.
The news comes as American Express GBT's 2018 China Business Travel Barometer reveals that 45% of Chinese companies expect business travel spending to increase over the next 12 months. "The portion of business travel expenditure allocated to domestic China (versus international) trips has increased by 18%, compared with last year's Barometer. This indicates that the level of business activity within tier two and tier three cities in Mainland China is rising," the company said.
The airline association predicts a doubling of air passengers to 8.2 billion in the next 20 years and says the Asia-Pacific region will drive the biggest growth with more than half the total number of new passengers coming from these markets.
"We are seeing a geographical reshuffling of world air traffic to the East," says Alexandre de Juniac, IATA's director general and CEO.
The chart below shows this shift over the next two decades. Indonesia, currently, tenth, will rise to the fourth biggest market over the period.

IATA also says it foresees "a significant negative impact on the growth and benefits of aviation if tough and restrictive protectionist measures are implemented". The chart below shows different growth projections based on global trade policies.

De Juniac says, "Global prosperity depends on air connectivity. Aviation is sensitive to policies that either support or undermine growth. And these seem to be pointing in the wrong direction. Dampening demand for air connectivity risks high quality jobs, and economic activity dependent on global mobility. This forecast is a cautionary warning to governments. First, the industry will grow but they must clear the infrastructure bottlenecks to bring that growth to their home markets. And secondly, governments must understand that globalization has made our world more socially and economically prosperous. Inhibiting globalization with protectionism will see opportunities lost."