The head of the Airports Commission has said the UK will need new runway capacity in the south-east “in the coming decades”.
Sir Howard Davies said the commission had made the “provisional conclusion” that extra capacity was needed during a speech at the Centre for London think tank.
“Our provisional conclusion is that we will need some net additional runway capacity in the south-east of England in the coming decades,” said Davies in his speech.
“To rely only on runways currently in operation would be likely to produce a distinctly sub-optimal solution for passengers, connectivity and the economy and would also almost certainly not be the best solution in terms of minimising the overall carbon impact of flights and travel to and from airports.”
The commission is currently working on an interim report assessing the need for increased hub airport capacity and is also drawing up a shortlist of options for expansion. This report is due to be published by the end of the year but its final recommendations will not be revealed until after the next general election in summer 2015.
“Our work so far suggests that doing nothing to address the capacity constraints in our current airport system would not be the right approach,” added Davies.
“Its likely effect would be to restrict passengers’ choices and it could have unintended consequences for the efficiency and resilience of UK airports, as well as possibly leading to some flights and emissions being displaced to other countries.”
Davies added that the commission had come to the view that “pressure on the UK’s busiest airports is likely to continue to grow even if we take a more conservative view of future aviation demand than the Department for Transport has in the past”.
“This is likely to see levels of future demand in excess of capacity in the south east of England airport system,” he added.
Davies also said that the commission thought it was difficult to see how the free market on its own could resolve the “capacity-demand imbalance” in the south-east.
“Regional airports are already serving their local markets effectively but it is difficult to see how they can absorb all the excess demand,” he said.
More than 50 companies, organisations and individuals have submitted their suggestions for where capacity can be added including the major London airports such Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted which have all made their cases to be allowed to expand.
Davies did not give any hints about where any extra capacity should be located in his speech.
"I have not touched upon a range of important issues of relevance to the case for capacity increases at one location or another," he said.
"These include negative impacts, for example in relation to noise or air quality, and also the potential positive effects of infrastructure investment on local and regional economies and employment."
Davies said that the commisssion was currently "examining closely" these issues relating to the various proposed options to expand runway capacity.
"They will play a key part as we identify our interim recommendations, as well as in the consideration of the options taken forward for more detailed development next year," he added.