The European aviation market stands to lose about 705
million passenger journeys in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic,
according to the latest analysis by the International Air Transport Association
(IATA).
In its August forecast, IATA said: “The near-term outlook
for recovery in Europe remains highly uncertain with respect to the second wave
of the pandemic and the broader global economic impact it could have.”
The association estimates the European market will lose 60
per cent of its usual passenger numbers, with flights still more than 50 per
cent below the level seen in 2019.
In the UK alone, IATA predicts a decrease of 165 million
passengers – worse than the 154 million drop forecast in June – at a potential cost
of 780,000 jobs and US$59.3 billion to the country’s GDP. Spain stands to lose
132.7 million passengers, with Germany close behind at 117.6 million.
Overall, IATA estimates that more than 7 million jobs
supported by aviation and tourism in Europe are now at risk, up from 6 million
estimated in June. The organisation said a lack of consumer confidence is largely driven by the "sto-and-go" travel restrictions and perceptions around track and trace systems across the continent.
Rafael Schvartzman, IATA’s regional vice president for
Europe, commented: “It is desperately worrying to see a further decline in
prospects for air travel this year, and the knock-on impact for employment and
prosperity. It shows once again the terrible effect that is being felt by
families across Europe as border restrictions and quarantine continue. It is
vital that governments and industry work together to create a harmonised plan for
reopening borders.
“With recovery to 2019 levels now slipping to 2024,
financial support, in forms which do not further load crippling debts onto the
industry, will be necessary if an even sharper contraction in airline capacity
and jobs is to be avoided. And regulatory assistance is vital. It is absolutely
crucial that the European Commission issue an unambiguous statement on their
intention to provide a full winter-season slot use waiver immediately. It is
baffling that the commission continues to sit on its hands over the summer,
while each day of delay becomes more critical for the future viability of a
robust and competitive aviation industry.”