Almost 60 million fewer airline seats will be available for sale worldwide in the last three months of 2008, a massive year-on-year drop equivalent to 7 per cent of worldwide capacity. That's the estimate of the Offical Airline Guide (OAG). The figures are alarming when compared to the hit the industry took following the September 11 attacks, when capacity fell by just 5 per cent - and when recovery took three years.
The estimate underlines the seriousness of the oil crisis and airlines” efforts to overcome it by cutting routes and ditching older ”gas guzzling” aircraft. OAG describes the situation as ”what could potentially be the most widespread crisis to hit the aviation industry in recent memory”.
OAG compiles its forecast from schedules filed with it by airlines. It estimates that US domestic services will account for a third of the capacity cut of 59.7 million as full-service airlines scale back their routes to combat soaring oil prices and competition from budget carriers. It also estimates that Asia”s capacity will decline 13 per cent, equivalent to a three-year growth setback.
Steve Casley, OAG chief operating officer, said the figures marked an end to steady growth in the industry since 2002.
”From OAG”s statistics, it looks quite possible that we may be facing a far more severe global downturn than we have experienced before,” he said.
OAG believes the downturn will mean the loss of scheduled air services to 275 airports worldwide, including 116 in the Asia Pacific region and 32 in the US.
One bright spot for the industry is a 2 per cent rise in the number of transatlantic services year on year. Carriers such as Delta have cut many domestic routes and used aircraft to expand long-haul services, which should be more profitable.
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Gary Noakes