RevPAR to rise in last half of 2010
The hotel market will "definitely" pick up next year, Konstanze Auernheimer, marketing director of hotel analysts STR Global, said today (September 10).
She said the decline in rates, occupancy and revPAR (revenue per available room) was already stabilising and "will continue to do so".
Ms Auernheimer was giving a key note presentation to the UK Hotel Booking Agents' Association (HBAA) Annual Forum.
She told the record 300 delegates in Hinckley, Leicestershire there were fewer hotels due to come onto the market in Europe by 2012than in other regions. This would help existing properties.
In London, where there are currently 95,000 hotel rooms, only another 4,335 were due to open in the next three years, despite the city hosting the Olympics in 2012.
Although there was a loss of business travellers in European hotels, the leisure market had held up well, especially in London where the Euro was stronger against the pound.
She said the decline in demand which started in late 2007, was across the board and had hit budget as well as luxury properties.
The fall had come after four years of growth in what has always been a cyclical market.
All regions of the world had suffered with Europe and Asia Pacific the first to g feel the effects, followed by North America and lastly the Middle East.
Ms Auernheimer said the UK had not done as badly as other countries in the downturn with a 12% drop in occupancy compared with 20% in Spain.
She said upscale hotels, like the Hiltons and Marriotts, had seen a drop in rates from late 2007 as business travellers began to stay away.
While London was less badly hit, the UK regions had not fared so well with major cities like Manchester, Liverpool, Belfast and Birmingham all hit.
Only Glasgow and Edinburgh, which benefited from sporting events and conferences, saw occupancy rise by 2-3%.
She said that while it was difficult to give a definite outlook, the fall in revPAR was stabilising in countries like Belgium, Italy, Germany and the UK.
In January the fall in revPAR in the UK was 12% and in July also 12%. In Germany the respective figures were 11% and 8%, Belgium 18% and 16% and Italy 25% and 12%.
Ms Auernheimer predicted the rise in revPAR in Europe would start in the latter part of Q2 2010 and continue in Q3 and Q4.
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