According to industry rumours parliamentary under secretary of state at the Department for Transport Tony McNulty will publish on Friday 18 December a long awaited white paper "the future development of air transport in the UK".
Cynics will of course note that this is the last Friday before Parliament rises for its Christmas recess. Others will say he did promise it in 2003. Whilst Scotland, Northern Ireland, the North of England, the Midlands, Wales and the South West each will have their own reports it is the South and South East that will be the most controversial and most vital for the country as a whole.
Heathrow, for all its faults, is the jewel in Britain”s airline crown, the world”s largest, richest and most important international aviation hub. BA chief executive Rod Eddington has said again and again that unless Heathrow gets its act together the UK will lose out. And he is right. The continental predators are ready to pounce. The White Paper is supposed to set the targets and plan the way for the next 30 years. New runway capacity is required, but just where and when is the real question. And how much. Interestingly the average passenger load at Heathrow is 195 . British Airways has reduced capacity in recent years in downsizing from Boeing 757 to Airbus A320 series. There is considerable growth left at Heathrow without any need for an increase in total aircraft movements or runway management manoeuvrings.
Assuming there is a requirement for more runway capacity in the South East let us look at the considerations. Unlike the French, who produced Charles de Gaulle (and for that matter the Airbus A380 assembly facility) on green field sites, in the UK farmland and housing cannot be acquired seemingly at will.
The idea of a new airport in the Thames estuary, whilst in theory brilliant, just does not stand up to close scrutiny. Even assuming that all the technical and ecological difficulties could be overcome the cost would be prodigious. Whilst there have been new offshore airports developed in recent times, Hong Kong and Osaka being examples, they have not been to the same scale that London requires.
Luton is probably the ideal location for a second runway. The airport lies between the M1 and A1 trunk roads, and both north east and north west rail links (which could offer easy access to Eurostar). A second runway would have little environmental impact and a motorway passing through the terminal area would also relieve traffic on the M25. Sadly the airport owners, TBI plc, are in truth just an over ambitious property company who have never been able to combat the political, marketing and financial power of BAA plc. Look at the way that Stansted, an airport in the middle of nowhere, has been able to overtake Luton in the last 10 years.
Gatwick remains an enigma, rather like its soul mate Newark Liberty in New York. Both are great airports, easy to use, but lacking international long haul passengers. A second runway is a possibility but the Sussex stockbroker belt will be even more difficult to pacify than the burghers of Essex.
So it comes down to Stansted or Heathrow for the first stage of extra runway capacity in the South East. For the good of the country Heathrow has to have a short (2000m) regional runway north of the Bath Road, or even an opening up of Northolt further to the north, and with it a high speed rail link to the central area and T4 & T5. Sadly every indication is that this will not happen and that Stansted will be further expanded, as indicated at the Public Enquiry way back in 1983/84. Politically London is moving east, never mind that only short haul traffic wants to use Stansted and the railway service totally inadequate and likely to stay that way.
And finally the question is who is going to pay for all this expansion? Not the taxpayer says the government. Not us say the airlines based at Heathrow (unless it is at Heathrow).
BAA plc can of course raise the funds by selling off Gatwick (for big money), or Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Glasgow and Southampton for somewhat less. (Or they can use the French method and appropriate the land and pay for it all at some later date ” but this will never happen). Gatwick against Heathrow. Now that would be interesting.
No doubt the Department will come up with a compromise. Roll on 18 December.