COMMENT: Gulf Blues
The Gulf War has brought into sharp focus that these are worrying times for the airlines of the world, none more so than the North American based juggernauts, imperial airlines who carry the baggage of history.
These carriers represent half of the world”s airline business. Don”t believe that their woes will not affect all of us this side of the Atlantic. It will, be it a London hotelier, component supplier in Toulouse, Swiss banker or German technology house. There used to be an expression that went somewhere along the lines that when America sneezed Europe caught a cold. No more so than now.
Our brethren in the United States have stopped flying (well at least in big numbers). They have been nervous since September 11. Now they have had a ”breakdown”. It used to be so easy flying in America. Providing you had a ticket (and sometimes even if you did not), you could amble up to the gate, have a few words with the check-in staff and you were away. Friends and greeters would intermingle and wait in the arrivals lounge at the other end ready to say hello at the very point where you disembarked.
All that has changed and security is tight, and getting tighter by the day. The most exhausting part of the whole business is now getting on (and getting off) the aircraft. No wonder the airline patrons of North America have lost their love for flying. And not just across the North Atlantic where the numbers are really down, but also within the USA itself. A drawbridge has not only been raised across the Pond, but the sanctuary itself now seems to have taken on the mood of a monastery where silence is sanctified (or in this case lack of travel).
Let us hope that the present conflict can be quickly brought to a peaceful conclusion. The regional carriers of Europe have been less affected than most and should recover quickly. Long haul traffic to the Far East and Australia seems to be holding up. The North Atlantic is in serious trouble. In the previous Gulf War it took about 12 months for business to return to normal but the 1990”s were, in the main, a poor decade for the airline industry. By the year 2000 the outlook looked much more promising and the aircraft order book was strong. Then it all went wrong.
The airline industry survived the last Gulf War with only one major casualty, Pan Am (TWA suffered a lingering death over the next decade). Let us hope that the big six are around this time next year.