If the U.K. fails to reach a deal on its withdrawal from the
European Union by April 2019, there will be insufficient time to negotiate a
comprehensive air services agreement between the U.K. and EU, according to an
October 2018 study the International Air Transport Association commissioned
from consultancy Taylor Airey.
The U.K. and EU are in the process of negotiating the terms
of the U.K.'s withdrawal from the EU, following the June 2016 referendum in
which the U.K. voted to separate from the EU. The U.K. set March 29, 2019, as
the departure date, regardless of whether it had ratified terms of the
withdrawal. Due to lack of support from parliament, U.K. prime minister Theresa
May on Dec. 10 postponed a parliamentary vote on a deal she had negotiated with
EU leaders, increasing the risk of a no-deal outcome.
Without a Brexit deal by March 29th, a bare-bones air
services agreement will need to be implemented to ensure at least a basic level
of air connectivity. Discussions for such an agreement are under way in case no
Brexit deal is reached, but what will it will contain is uncertain and unclear,
according to IATA.
If the U.K. leaves the EU without an agreement on security, for
example, the EU may have to rescreen, upon arrival, passengers flying from the
U.K. into the EU. But that could be avoided if the EU adds the U.K. to its list
of non-EU member territories. Such countries, including the U.S. and Canada, are
recognized as applying security standards equivalent to EU standards for
passenger and cabin baggage security.
And while the U.K.'s self-service border gates
and visa-free travel are currently available for EU citizens entering the U.K.,
post-Brexit, differences between U.K. and EU regulations and changes to citizens'
rights, such as freedom of movement of workers between the U.K. and the EU, are
inevitable. That likely would make for tighter borders and thus delays. IATA said
a more comprehensive border management system is needed to deal with the 85
million passengers who travel between the U.K. and EU annually.